World Matchplay Darts 2024 Final Betting Tips: Sean previews Sunday’s showpiece

It all comes down to this – the 2024 Betfred World Matchplay reaches its conclusion on Sunday evening as Michael van Gerwen takes on Luke Humphries for the chance to reign supreme at Winter Gardens.

Our tipster Sean Rafferty returns today with his World Matchplay Darts 2024 betting tips for the highly anticipated final, which you can check out below.

World Matchplay Darts Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main World Matchplay Darts page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

After all the highs and lows this week, we have finished up with two of the big guns.

Admittedly, MVG has perhaps exceeded expectations set by some for him this week, myself included. However, you can never rule out The Green Machine, who remains the most successful player on tour to date.

Humphries has been the best player all week – not once has he dropped below a 100 average in his four matches played. He took a while to get into his stride last night against James Wade as he threw some ropey doubles. Nevertheless, he never let Wade pull away at any stage, remained calm and eventually clicked into gear.

MVG raced to a good start against Michael Smith, and he looked to be wilting towards the latter stages, but a 136 checkout swung the momentum back in his favour, kicking on from there to win 17-13.

Two games in a row now Van Gerwen’s finishing has been very poor – he hit less than 30 percent of his doubles against Gilding and Smith (16/54 and 17/57). The Green Machine badly needs to improve this or he’ll get severely punished by Humphries. In contrast, Cool Hand has hit 39 percent or more of his doubles in all of his matches this week.

The recent head-to-head record is a massive factor in my opinion. Humphries is absolutely dominant – they’ve already played each other eight times in 2024 and Cool Hand has won the last seven of them. The majority of these victories have been very one-sided, too (8-1, 10-5, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3).

Humphries controlled that Premier League semi-final between the pair back in May, triumphing 10-5. I have to say I fancy this match to go in a similar vein and I wouldn’t put anybody off Humphries -3.5 legs at 11/10.

I also expect Humphries to win with a 100+ average, having managed this in five of his seven victories over MVG this year. However, although I fancy Humphries to get the job done comfortably tonight, I’m seeking a bit more value at a better price.

Over 160.5 for the highest match checkout at a boosted price of 3/1 is extremely appealing. To use some examples of matches over a longer format like this one – MVG hit a 161 in his win over Smith last night and Humphries checked out 164 in his win over Van den Bergh.

Over the past 2 years, 50 percent of the meetings these two have had in matches first to eight legs or more have had a 161+ checkout, which suggests 3/1 for this outcome is the best value we’re getting tonight.

Let’s hope for a good final!

Darts Odds

Offers

Betfred World Matchplay (13/07 – 21/07): We are playing 4 places on the Betfred World Matchplay at 1/4 odds. (Available from 12:30 Thursday 04/07).

Betfred World Matchplay (13/07 – 21/07): We will be Top Price or joint Top Price on Luke Humphries to win the Betfred World Matchplay Darts with selected bookmakers using oddschecker.com for the comparison (Available from 09:30 Friday).

Betfred World Matchplay (13/07 – 21/07): Bet on any player to win the Betfred World Matchplay Darts, and if they win and hit a 9 Dart Finish during the tournament, we’ll double your odds!

You can find all our darts tipster Sean Rafferty’s latest Darts Betting Tips on our main Insights content hub.