World Matchplay Darts 2024 Betting Tips: Could’ve been the final

Day Three of the Betfred World Matchplay darts from the Winter Gardens, Blackpool – and two sensational contests on Monday, July 15.

Luke ‘The Nuke’ Littler takes on the legend that is Michael van Gerwen, while Chris Dobey faces Richie Edhouse. For my take on these absolute crackers, kindly see below …

World Matchplay Darts Odds

Luke Littler to win (vs MVG) @ 4/6

Well, where do you start with this blockbuster of a match? The one that got everyone’s attention when the draw was made. An absolute heavyweight clash that really has the potential to produce magic – and it goes without saying this easily could’ve been the final.

I have to side with the 17-year-old here though; he seems to have the ability to really raise his game on the big occasion, which means I’m happy to ignore a couple of poor performances from The Nuke at recent Pro Tour events (played 3 games – 79, 99 and 89 averages).

He showed he can raise his game during the Premier League campaign – he didn’t look great in the final few weeks of the league phase then absolutely tore it up on Finals Night to win the title. I haven’t even considered the fact he’s making his Matchplay debut being an issue – he made the final on World Championship debut, and won the Premier League first time up too. This kid appears to have the ability to take anything in his stride.

There have been question marks over MVG for some time now; he’s only picked up one title in 2024 and hasn’t won a ranking event (incredibly he hasn’t won a ranking title since May 2023). You then compare this to Littler who has picked up five titles on his debut season on tour.

I’m also not convinced by Van Gerwen’s preparations ahead of this tournament, which included a family holiday to Ibiza. Everyone is entitled to prepare how they think best but when he’s been struggling for form/confidence/consistency this year, I really felt he should’ve used the recent pair of Pro Tour events to find something, as opposed to withdrawing from them.

These two have played each other nine times already this year. MVG has won four of them, however as I say Littler seems to turn up on the big occasion. Luke will also have the crowd on his side which could play a big factor if he gets off to a good start.

Looking at the stats – MVG has averaged below 97 in 6 of his last 7 matches. Littler meanwhile has averaged 100+ in 7 of his last 12.

For me, most factors are leaning in Littler’s favour and he’s priced up fairly at 4/6. Happy to back him to win the tie of the round.

Darts Odds

Chris Dobey to win (vs Richie Edhouse) @ 3/10

Richie Edhouse has enjoyed a brilliant 2024 which has seen him soar up the order of merit to comfortably clinch a spot in the Matchplay in the end, so he makes his debut in Blackpool.

He’s managed to do this without winning a first ranking title, but consistently has showed good scoring power that has seen him get some impressive results and reach latter stages of some Euro/Pro Tour events.

In saying this, I do feel Edhouse has dropped off slightly recently – from February to April he averaged 94.36, but from May until now he’s averaged 91.78. His highest average in his last 16 matches is 97.19, while he also averaged below 89 in half of these.

Dobey has had a relatively quiet season so far – still sits 6th in the averages for 2024 at 96.39 so he’s still producing a good level. He’s made two Pro Tour finals this year, winning one of them in April. He still seems to have mastered losing matches with really good averages, but here I think he’ll find a way to win.

Hollywood made the QFs here last year so has some experience of winning on this stage. Edhouse hasn’t been too convincing on these big occasions – he’s never been further than the last 16 of a major. He’s suffered defeats to players ranked well below him in the 1st round of the World Championship the past couple years, against Jeffrey De Graaf and David Cameron.

This selection is based more on question marks over Edhouse, for as well as he’s played this year I still have major question marks over his composure/bottle in pressure situations and playing here is a high-pressure environment. If Dobey can produce his usual standard then I think he runs out a comfy winner.

Every stat frankly favours him tonight, and to combine this selection with The Nuke the double pays around 1.16/1.

Darts Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.