Currently Donald Trump is the betting favorite to be the winner of the 2024 presidential election. He is marginally ahead in the betting of the incumbent Joe Biden
One of the factors that doesn’t seem to be taken into account is that there are strong legal moves that would effectively stop Trump from being on the ballot in several states. This has already happened in Colorado.
A huge hurdle that Trump will have to surmount is the 14th amendment to the US Constitution made in the aftermath of the Civil War. This could be triggered when someone who has taken an oath of office to obey the Constitution participates in an insurrection. The argument goes that Trump’s actions on January 6th 2021 fall foul of that provision.
Inevitably this will end up before the Supreme Court and it is hard to judge which way they will go. But there is little doubt that what Trump did on January 6 2021 has become a huge problem for him. Whenever this is raised TV clips of what happened on that day are shown and my judgment is that this hurts Trump.
I’m now betting that Trump won’t win the 2024 race.
