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Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell faced plenty of scrutiny following the Lions’ NFC Championship meltdown on Sunday. Campbell twice opted to go for fourth downs in field goal range in the second half of the Lions’ 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and twice Detroit failed to convert.
Some argued that those decisions doomed Detroit’s chances of advancing to its first Super Bowl. Others argued that Campbell’s gambles were part of the Lions’ philosophy, and they were just sticking to what got them into the game. The field goals also weren’t a sure thing, with each potential attempt being over 45 yards.
Realistically, it was a series of jaw-dropping miscues — a would-be interception bouncing off a defender’s face into the arms of Brandon Aiyuk for a 50-yard gain, among the notable blunders — that played the biggest role in ending Detroit’s postseason run.
While many people agree that an elite coach putting their team in advantageous positions throughout the course of a season matters, those considerations are sometimes overblown, especially from a game-by-game sports betting perspective.
Credible sports betting handicappers often avoid using the general idea of “coaching” as a determinant in their wagering decisions. In reality, a team’s ability (which includes how it’s coached) is already factored into betting lines, especially deep into a season.
“I’m sure coaches contribute to how the game is played, but getting into that level of nuance is too low on the list of factors to consider,” Capt. Jack Andrews, the co-founder of Unabated, told Sports Handle via email. “Chances are if you’re handicapping the NFL based on coaching, you’re already at a deeper disadvantage than you realize.”
Roster talent matters
Recently retired Nick Saban built a powerhouse at Alabama during his time leading the Crimson Tide’s football team, and Saban’s player development and culture building are well-respected by his coaching peers.
His recruiting also played a major role in Alabama’s success. For much of Saban’s Alabama tenure, the Crimson Tide took the field with a more talented football team than their opponent.
“These days, the key to college is how good your personnel is and how appropriately they are used, since many of the offenses are generally running similar concepts,” BetMGM writer Chase Kiddy told Sports Handle. “The old cliche applies here: ‘It’s not the Xs and the Os but the Jimmys and the Joes.’”
Any recent Alabama futures odds movement following Saban’s retirement had more to do with players entering the transfer portal than it did the program’s hiring of former Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer as Saban’s replacement.
Certainly Saban’s all-star coaching staffs played a role in his program’s success, but the bevy of NFL players who came through Tuscaloosa played arguably the largest role. Coaching matters, but players ultimately decide games.
To wit, Bill Belichick is viewed as one of the best NFL head coaches ever, but his New England teams went 29-38 in the four seasons following Tom Brady’s departure, making one playoff appearance and winning zero playoff games. Despite being viewed by most as an elite-level coach, Belichick’s recent teams lacked the roster talent and cohesion of previous New England squads.
When it comes to handicapping games, most casual bettors would benefit more from basic line shopping than trying to decipher coaching advantages.
The post What’s The Sports Betting Value Of A Coach? appeared first on SportsHandle.
