US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  anticipated and stored the whole lot unchanged at the final assembly.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their knowledge dependency
  and stored all of the choices on the desk.
• The US CPI
  yesterday got here in keeping with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained
  roughly the identical.
• The labour market
  displayed indicators of softening though it stays pretty strong.
• Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims
  stunned to the upside, which level to a resilient economic system total.
• Yesterday, we received one more beat in Jobless Claims adopted
  by sturdy Retail Sales and PPI knowledge.
• The Fed members are leaning extra in direction of a pause in
  September and the following determination will nonetheless be dictated by the financial knowledge.
• The market doesn’t anticipate the Fed to hike at the
  September assembly and there’s simply a 33% likelihood of a hike in November, though
  that may change if the information retains on operating scorching.

Canada:

• The BoC left rates of interest at 5.00% as anticipated however stays ready to
  increase charges additional if wanted.
• BoC Governor Macklem delivered a hawkish speech which factors to a different price hike
  if the information stays sturdy into the following coverage assembly.
• The Canadian underlying inflation
  knowledge beat expectations on all measures for the June readings and lately we
  received one other beat for the July knowledge.
• On the labour market facet, the current
  report confirmed one other uptick in wage development and this is one thing that Governor
  Macklem mentioned the BoC is watching rigorously.
• The market doesn’t anticipate the BoC to
  hike once more, however we nonetheless have numerous knowledge earlier than the following assembly.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the each day chart, we will see that USDCAD lastly
pulled again all the way in which all the way down to the key swing level at 1.3489 following one other
uptick within the Canadian wage development knowledge. The shifting averages have
crossed to the draw back, so it is likely to be an early signal that the development is
altering, however the worth has not made a new decrease low, so the market construction
stays bullish.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
four hour Timeframe

On the four hour chart, we will see that after the
large divergence with the
MACD since
the start of August, we lastly received a correct pullback. This swing level at
1.3489 is key as a result of a break beneath it might change the development from bullish to
bearish and open the door for a fall into the 1.33 deal with. In reality, we will
anticipate the consumers stepping in right here with a outlined threat beneath the swing level to
goal a new excessive. The sellers, then again, will wish to see the worth
breaking decrease to pile in much more and goal the 1.33 deal with.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we will see that we
have one other divergence with the MACD proper at the key swing level. This is
usually a signal of weakening momentum typically adopted by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we both get a pullback into the 1.3520 resistance the place
we will additionally discover the downward trendline or a
reversal in case the worth breaks above the trendline. In the primary situation
the sellers are more likely to lean on the resistance to place for a break beneath
the assist with a tight threat above the trendline. In the second choice, the
consumers are more likely to pile in as soon as the worth breaks above the trendline and
goal a new excessive.

Upcoming Events

Today the one notable
report left to be launched for this week is the University of Michigan Consumer
sentiment survey. Consumer sentiment may need deteriorated given greater
power costs and that may have filtered to greater inflation expectations.