Uruguay vs Brazil Prediction: La Celeste to send out-of-sorts Selecao home

The pick of the 2024 Copa America quarter-finals comes at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada on Sunday (02:00, Premier Sports 1) as Group C winners Uruguay take on Group D runners-up Brazil.

Read below for my Uruguay vs Brazil prediction as the two South American giants do battle in a bid to reach the sem-finals, where they will face either Colombia or Panama.

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Ten Uruguay players started all three group-stage victories over Panama (3-1), Bolivia (5-0) and the USA (1-0), with Nicolas de la Cruz coming in for Giorgian de Arrascaeta after the opening game.

However, it’s unlikely La Celeste head coach Marcelo Bielsa will be able to name an unchanged starting XI for the third consecutive match after Maximiliano Araujo was stretchered off against the USA following a collision.

Cristian Olivera replaced Araujo against the Stars and Stripes and appears the most likely candidate to replace the stricken forward.

Nine Brazil players started all three games in Group D but one of those, Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr., won’t be able in the starting line-up on Sunday as he is suspended following an accumulation of yellow cards.

Seleceao head coach Dorival Junior could replace Vinicius Jr. with teenage sensation Endrick, who has been a second-half substitute in all three matches so far.

Uruguay vs Brazil Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Uruguay vs Brazil page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Despite romping Group C, Uruguay are slight underdogs on Sunday with odds of 7/4 giving them an implied win probability of 36.4%, while Brazil are 6/4, or a 40% chance.

A draw, which would send the tie straight to penalties, can be backed at 2/1, while both teams to score is available at 10/11.

Uruguay to win & both teams to score (90 mins) @ 5/1

The fact that the odds are so close says everything about how Brazil and Uruguay have been playing recently.

Normally, one would expect the Selecao to be a much lower price to beat La Celeste, but the five-time World Cup winners haven’t been themselves for a long time now, triumphing in just three of their last 11 games dating back to October 2023.

The first four of those matches, where they drew to Venezuela (1-1) and lost three consecutively to Uruguay (2-0), Colombia (2-1) and Argentina (0-1), were under the stewardship of Junior’s predecessor Fernando Diniz, and the current head coach is actually unbeaten since taking the reigns earlier this year.

However, three wins out of seven isn’t good enough for a nation like Brazil, who have failed to beat Spain (3-3) and the USA (1-1) in friendlies before drawing with both Costa Rica (0-0) and Colombia (1-1) in Copa America Group D.

A 4-1 victory over a pointless Paraguay is their only triumph at the tournament so far and without Vinicius Jr. on Sunday, supporters may well be fearing the worst up against a resurgent Uruguay outfit.

Bielsa took charge of his first Uruguay match in June 2023 and has won nine of his first 15 games, losing just twice. La Celeste scored nine times in Copa America Group C and will more than fancy their chances against a confidence-stricken Brazilian team.

With Ronald Araujo and Mathias Olivera providing stern protection to Sergio Rochet’s goal, Federico Valverde hustling and bustling across the midfield and Darwin Nunez providing pace and power in attack, there is a lot to like about this Uruguay side, and I’m backing them to get the job done on Sunday without the need for penalties.

However, despite keeping four clean sheets in their last five games, I think Brazil can still get themselves on the scoresheet. La Celeste lost concentration during the dying embers of their victory against Panama, who struck a consolation effort in the fifth minute of second-half added time, and something similar may occur in Paradise.

Bet Builder – Darwin Nunez anytime scorer, Uruguay over 1.5 offsides, Manuel Ugarte carded, Raphinha 2+ shots (90 mins) @ 12/1

Nunez scored in Uruguay’s first two group games against Panama and Bolivia before being kept at bay by the USA, but that was a game they had no real need to win, or even draw.

I see the Liverpool striker posing big problems to the Brazilian backline with his pace, and he can strengthen his claim for the Golden Boot – he currently trails Lautaro Martinez by two – with a strike on Sunday, though don’t be surprised if he’s caught offside one or two times in the process.

Uruguay were caught offside six times across their first two matches – three in each against Panama and Bolivia – with Nunez flagged twice himself, while Brazil caught Colombia offside twice last time out.

The third selection of this bet builder involves Uruguay midfielder Manuel Ugarte, who loves to fly into a challenge as evidenced by his Copa America tackles per game average of six.

He’s only made two fouls at the tournament so far, which flies in the face of the Ugarte that Ligue 1 fans have come to know this past season. The 23-year-old made an average of 1.8 fouls per game in the league for Paris Saint-Germain in the 2023/24 campaign, being booked five times, while he received a further two yellow cards in the Champions League.

In the 2022/23 Portuguese Primeira Liga season, Ugarte was shown 11 yellows, highlighting the type of player he is in the middle of midfield.

He made three fouls in the last head-to-head between these sides last October and could probably consider himself fortunate not to have been booked.

Unlike Nunez, Ugarte isn’t at risk of a suspension for the semi-final if La Celeste get there, so I think he will be snapping into challenges without thought on Sunday, and he could well receive his first card of the tournament with the stakes so high.

Finally, I’m adding Brazil’s Raphinha to take two shots to get this bet builder up to 12/1.

The Barcelona winger nearly made himself a hero against Colombia with a perfectly executed free-kick that put the Selecao in the lead before Daniel Munoz equalised to keep Raphinha’s side in second spot.

Still, the 27-year-old should take great confidence from that goal and will be expected to continue his exploits in the absence of Vinicius Jr.

Raphinha has taken two shots in both of his two starts at Copa America and looks a good bet to maintain that record on Sunday.

Offers

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