• The spread in the Ohio State vs Oregon game has shortened from Buckeyes -3.5 to -3 since the start of the week
• The total has risen a point from 53 to 54, despite both teams boasting excellent defenses
• Keep reading for the updated Ohio State vs Oregon odds, plus get our expert prediction

The biggest game of the 2024 College Football season to date goes down Saturday night in Eugene, OR. #2 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) faces #3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten), in the kind of spotlight stealing matchup the Big Ten envisioned when it invited the Ducks to join the conference.

The winner is expected to leapfrog #1 Texas and grab pole position in the AP Top-25 rankings. Online sportsbooks are still leaning Buckeyes per the College Football odds, but the spread has moved against them.

Updated Ohio State vs Oregon Odds

Ohio State began the week as 3.5-point favorites. Early money came in on the Ducks, prompting bookmakers to move the line down to -3. At the current number, the betting action is all Buckeyes. As of Saturday morning, 70% of the spread tickets are on Ohio State as field goal favorites, along with 66% of the handle.

Totalwise, the over/under has crept up a point from 53 to 54. 79% of the bets and 84% of the money is on the over per the College Football public betting trends, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe this game will underwhelm offensively.

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Both Offenses Haven’t Truly Been Tested

For starters, both programs have benefitted from soft schedules. Yes, Ohio State has an average point differential of 39 points per game, but they’ve played only one team ranked higher than 75th per SP+.

Oregon meanwhile, has posted three straight convincing wins after a slow start, but only one of their five victories this season came versus a defense ranked better than 55th per SP+.

Ohio State vs Oregon Defensive Stats

The Buckeyes are the nation’s top ranked defense by most metrics, while the Ducks are a top-20 unit. Both defenses have the talent and scheme to neutralize each other’s passing game, which should lead to an even greater percentage of clock killing runs (as we’ll discuss).

Oregon Struggles to Finish

We should especially be concerned about the Oregon offense in this contest. Despite facing a slew of weak defenses, the Ducks have struggled to create explosive plays and finish drives. They rank 93rd in red zone efficiency so far, and are outside the top-90 in both rush and pass expected points added. Not exactly the stuff of a top College Football Playoff odds contender.

QB Dillon Gabriel is averaging the lowest yards per attempt of his collegiate career, and has thrown three red zone interceptions in his last two starts. Now he’ll have to face one of the top pass rushes in the country. Ohio State ranks second in pass rush win rate, and has converted one-third of their total pressures into sacks.

Ohio State Will Lean Run Heavy

The Buckeyes’ Jeremiah Smith looks like the next star in a long line of fantastic Ohio State receivers. However, he and QB Will Howard will have a tough time finding success in the pass game.

The Ducks star d-linemen Jordan Burch and Derrick Harmon have combined for 46 pressures and 35 hurries in five games. Howard turns into a pumpkin under duress, completing just 31% of his throws at a rate of only 2.1 yards per attempt.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon will be the FIRST top-5 matchup in Autzen Stadium history

CAN’T WAIT pic.twitter.com/nc3r0MyYwu

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) October 11, 2024

Oregon’s back end is even stronger, ranking second in the entire FBS in passes defended, with 11 defensive players recording at least one pass breakup.

If there’s a weakness on the Ducks defense, it’s against the run. Both Boise State and Oregon State shredded Oregon on the ground, and the Buckeyes boast two terrific backs. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are averaging 7.9 yards per carry, combining for 9 TD already.

Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction

Elite pass defenses and a steady dose of the run game is an ideal recipe for an under. Throw in the Ducks’ red zone woes, and under 54 points looks even better.

The icing on the cake is the pace at which both teams play at. Ohio State and Oregon rank 71st and 74th, respectively, in plays per game. The fewer plays that are run, the less opportunity there is for offense, especially if the teams involved struggle to create explosives.

• Pick: Under 54 (-105)

The post Updated Ohio State vs Oregon Odds & Expert Prediction appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.