UFC Fight Night Predictions: Tybura can repeat his 2020 win over Spivac

Marcin Tybura takes on Serghei Spivac this Saturday, August 10 at UFC Vegas 95. The heavyweight clash takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. TNT Sports 1 will screen the action live. 

Here are my Tybura vs Spivac predictions ahead of this clash of ranked heavyweights.

Tybura and Spivac are very familiar with each other. The pair shared three rounds of action on a Fight Night card back in 2020. Tybura got the unanimous decision on that occasion in an entertaining scrap. That bout also laid out some stylistic traits that could play a part in Saturday’s encounter.

The two men look evenly-matched standing. The striking exchanges saw pendulum swings in terms of advantage, with both fighters getting clean shots off. But Tybura dictated the pace of the fight due to his superior grappling.

‘Tybur’ scored multiple takedowns and was able to manhandle his man against the fence and on the ground. Spivac went from landing punches on the feet to covering up on the ground. It was a fight between a man with a single strategy and a man with various means to win. 

Both fighters have been incredibly active in the four years since that encounter. Tybura has gone 7-2 since, with only Alexander Volkov and now-UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall defeating him. Losing only to the absolute elite, the Pole has had a fine campaign since beating Spivac in 2020.

Spivac has done well in the intervening years too. ‘Polar Bear’ has gone 6-2, posting his own loss to Aspinall with his other fight coming against Ciryl Gane. Like his rival, Spivac has only lost against elite level heavyweights. A Performance of the Night win over Derrick Lewis last year was a particular highlight.

This is a great fight on paper between two guys who are near the top of the division. Were it not for the absolute tear Aspinall has been on, one or both might be close to a title shot. Both fighters sit in the UFC top 10, meaning a win here could lead to a huge fight. It is easy to envision the victor’s next fight adorning a pay-per-view undercard.

This rematch is perfectly matched. Both have arguably improved since the first bout. Spivac is 29 now and with invaluable experience fighting the very best the UFC has to offer. Tybura is firmly in his wily veteran era at 38. But try telling the conquered likes of Tai Tuivasa, who submitted to our subject in March, that he’s close to being finished.

Tybura vs Spivac Fight Odds

Despite losing their first encounter, Spivac comes into this bout as the 8/13 favourite. Tybura is 5/4 to repeat his previous victory.

Tybura vs Spivac Full Card

Main Card

Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac – Heavyweight 

Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal – Featherweight 

Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov – Welterweight 

Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le – Bantamweight 

Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler – Bantamweight 

Toshiomi Kazama vs Charalampos Grigoriou – Bantamweight 

Preliminary Card 

Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad – Bantamweight 

Jhonata Diniz vs Karl Williams – Heavyweight 

Youssef Zalal vs Jarno Errens – Featherweight 

Stephanie Luciano vs Talita Alencar – Flyweight

Tybura vs Spivac Prediction

I think Tybura will make it two-from-two in his burgeoning rivalry with Spivac. On the feet, Spivac might even have more success than the evenly-matched exchanges from 2020. But the X-factor is Tybura’s strength in the cliches and offensive wrestling. 

I think if the heat gets too much on the feet, Tybura will take it to the mat. Once there, he is well-equipped to dominate. My pick is Tybura to win at 5/4.

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