• Tulane is a 5-point road favorite over #23 Army in the AAC Championship Game on Friday, December 6
• The Black Knights rushing attack ranks top-5 in success rate, line yards and stuff rate
• Check out the latest Tulane vs Army odds, spread and prediction, below

Tulane’s longshot playoff dreams may have been crushed last week, but they can still salvage a very successful season by claiming the AAC title. The Green Wave (9-3, 7-1 AAC) visit #23 Army (10-1, 8-0 AAC) in the Conference Championship Game on Friday, and oddsmakers have pegged them as chalk in the latest College Football odds.

Tulane vs Army Odds

Tulane is favored by 5 points, in a contest with a total of 45.5. The Green Wave are currently drawing 56% of the spread tickets and 62% of the handle, something we vehemently disagree with – more on that later.

Total-wise, early under money had driven this number down 3 points according to the College Football public betting trends. That move appears to be too much, however, as 80% of the over/under tickets and 61% of the total money are now on over 45.5.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET at Michie Stadium, in West Point, NY, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 5 at 9:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

Why Tulane is Overrated

Prior to the Green Wave’s latest loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving Week, there was a slim chance they’d be one of the final 12 contenders in the College Football Playoff odds. It didn’t take long for the Tigers to prove Tulane wasn’t ready for the signature stage, as they waxed them 34-24.

Memphis ran all over Tulane for 236 yards and two scores, a troubling fact given Army is on deck. What’s even more concerning, though, is the Green Wave’s struggles versus quality opponents. Tulane has faced four teams ranked inside the top-50 per SP+, losing three times by at least seven points.

Memphis sends Tulane to the gulag

And the MWC Title Game might just be a CFB Playoff play-in game pic.twitter.com/zqvC9Yj7tc

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 29, 2024

On the flip side, their nine wins have come against vastly inferior programs. They beat an FCS school, as well as eight FBS opponents. Those eight FBS teams had an average ranking north of 90 per SP+, with only Louisiana ranked inside the top-65.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to like about the Green Wave. Their offense ranks top-30 in points and yards per game, as well as third down conversion rate. They rank 10th in red zone success rate, and only three teams average more yards per pass. The problem is, the Black Knights can absolutely expose them on the other side of the ball.

Run Army Run

The common theme in each of Tulane’s losses is that they’ve been gashed by the run. They’re yielding an average of over 200 rushing yards in each defeat, along with two touchdowns. No team runs the ball more often than Army, and few teams are as successful on the ground.

The Black Knights rank top-five in the country in rushing success rate, line yards, quality drives and stuff rate. They rush the ball on over 85% of their offensive snaps, while the three-headed monster of QB Bryson Daily, along with running backs Kanye Udoh and Noah Short are averaging over 6.0 yards per carry.

BRYSON. DAILY.

HIS 25TH RUSHING TOUCHDOWN OF THE SEASON

That ties The American single season record#AmericanWay x @ArmyWP_Football pic.twitter.com/J5CPrn4o5r

— The American (@American_Conf) November 30, 2024

Not surprisingly as a result, Army leads the nation in time of possession and are excellent on money downs. The Black Knights are top-five in third-down conversion rate, and have been successful on 75% of their fourth-down tries.

Memphis dominated TOP last week against Tulane, keeping the Green Wave off the field. That created a sense of urgency on Tulane’s part, which led to multiple bad decisions resulting in turnovers.

It’s not hard to envision a similar game script on Friday night, in front of a raucous Army home crowd. The Black Knights won double-digit games for the first time since 2018 this season, and are one win away from their first conference title.

Tulane vs Army Prediction

Given that early money has moved the line in Tulane’s favor, there’s no rush to bet Army right now. We could get a better number closer to kickoff, but even if the line drifts back down towards them, there’s still value on the Black Knights at anything beyond a field goal.

Not that you need another reason to back Army, but if you do consider the following: Tulane has to travel over 1,300 miles for this contest. The temperatures also project to be around freezing, which simply isn’t something a team from New Orleans will be accustom to. Advantage Army.

• Tulane vs Army Pick: Army +5 (-110)

The post Tulane vs Army Odds, Spread & Prediction – AAC Championship Game appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.