At the National Summit of the Israeli American Council, Donald Trump said “the Jewish people” would have a “lot to do with it” if he loses the presidential election. This event, described here, was organized to combat anti-Semitism. It’s one thing to say, “I need your help.” It’s another thing to say, “If I fail it’s your fault.”

This, in and of itself, is an anti-Semitic statement. It’s a thinly veiled threat, akin to “Nice little place you got here, it’d be a shame if anything was to happen to it,” said while welding a lead pipe or a baseball bat.

He also said, “I’m the one protecting you.” While it was unclear whether he meant Israel or Jewish Americans, it is clear that this too are the words of a pompous dick-headed asshole. He was not protecting the Jewish community in the US when he said, of neo-Nazis marching, chanting, “Jews will not replace us,” and killed Heather Heyer, a 32 year old paralegal and civil rights activist in the August, 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, VA. (More at PBS News Hour, here.) He was not protecting the Jewish community when he hosted the Kanye West and Nick Fuentes at Mar a Lago in 2022 (NBC, here) or when during a debate with Joe Biden in 2020 he told the “Proud Boys” and other White Supremacists, “Stand back and stand by” (Politifact, here).

The statement is also revealing of his totalitarian and “Constitution? What Constitution?” sentiments. In the United States law enforcement and the judiciary are responsible for protecting citizens, it is not the job of the President. If “Protecting you” is the prerogative of the President then he or she could choose to do it or not. If it the de jure responsibility of the government then it is something law enforcement and the judiciary must do, as they have sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

But back to “If I lose the Jewish people would have a lot to do with it.”

Jews constitute 2.2% of the US population. That’s about 7.5 million people. While that is more than live in several states, it’s still 2.2% of the population. The Jews have zero votes in the Electoral College.

The table below shows US demographics in 2024. There are almost 3 times as many Asians as Jews, almost six times as many Blacks, almost nine times as many Hispanics, and over 27 times as many other whites as Jews. So if Trump loses, it is more likely the votes of Whites, Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians, than Jews.

Almost half, roughly 48.5% of American Jews live in New York, California, and New Jersey, 3.6 million out of about 7.5 million. These states which typically vote for Democrats. Similarly, Democratic candidates typically get 65 to 70% of the votes of Jews. (Data from Jewish Virtual Library, here.)

New York, for example, as noted above is home to about 1.8 million Jews, and 20 million people. The last time a Republican won New York was 1984. While it is mathematically possible that New York could swing to Trump if EVERY one of those 1.8 million Jews voted for him, it is unlikely.

Generally speaking, roughly 70% of Jews vote for Democrats. Assuming all Jews are registered to vote – which is impossible because some are under 18, and some who are old enough to vote are not registered, there may be 5% to 10% who would swing from Harris to Trump, 180 thousand in New York, 120,000 in California, and 60,000 in New Jersey. This is probably not enough to swing the electoral votes in those states.

But again, if a candidate wants votes, he or she should ask for them, not threaten people that he will be angry with them if they don’t vote for him.