Tour de France Stage 20 Predictions: 8/1 Carapaz to pip Pogacar?

The final weekend of Tour de France action in 2024 begins with a mountainous 132.8km Stage 20 between Nice and Col de la Couillole as Tadej Pogacar looks to wrap up a third Tour title (live from 12:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 12:30 BST on ITV4).

While Sunday’s final stage has the unusual ending of an individual time-trial from Monaco to Nice rather than the traditional processional ride into Paris’ Champs-Elysees, Pogacar’s dominance has ensured that the yellow jersey is off the table whatever Saturday’s result. Here are my Tour de France Stage 20 predictions.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Pogacar is the favourite for the stage once more, with his seemingly inexorable march to yellow in March being punctuated by confident attacks on the front of the race. He’s 11/4 to repeat his Friday win and make it five for Le Tour ’24, with Simon Yates – one of those he passed in the final kilometres to Isola 2000 – next at 7/1.

Richard Carapaz will wear polka dots for the first time in this Tour on Saturday, and is 8/1 to mark the occasion with a second win in four days, while Matteo Jorgenson is 9/1 to put his late disappointment on Friday behind him and go one better.

Enric Mas, at 12/1, is the only other rider not priced at 18/1 or more.

Cycling Odds

Pogi was at his brilliant best on Friday as he delivered the kind of attack that has many calling him the greatest cyclist of all time. His wonderful exhibition up to Isola 2000 made it look as though the likes of Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Richard Carapaz and Matteo Jorgensen were standing still as he sailed up the mountain.

And that has virtually made the last two stages all about the Slovenian just staying on his bike to win, with a lead of 5:03 on two-time defending champion Vingegaard and 7:01 over third-placed Evenepoel. But there is still a lot of ground to cover, and Saturday’s is by no means a breeze of a stage.

While this is, in theory, the second-hardest day in the race due to the 4,752 vertical metres the riders are facing, the fact that they are coming off Friday’s energy-sapping climbs up the Col de Vars, Col de la Bonette and Isola 2000 makes this one arguably the toughest.

With the number of kilometres in their legs by now and considering how hard the entire peloton was worked on Friday, this could be the day when teams really looked to break their main rivals in the battles for classification positions even if yellow is a foregone conclusion at this point.

The mountain-top finish at the Col de la Couillole is the toughest climb of the three category-one obstacles in what is the shortest regular stage on this year’s route. But the events of Friday mean that this could be a more unpredictable day if Pogacar decides to go against his natural instincts and protect what he has so close to the finish line.

That was certainly what his message seemed to be after Friday’s finish, as he insisted he’d be happy to let a breakaway go and just enjoy riding with his team on the roads he knows so well from years of training close to Nice.

Tadej Pogacar @ 11/4

Take what Tadej says with a pinch of salt. Even if he and his UAE Team Emirates colleagues do let a break go, there’s every chance he’ll go and chase it down on the tougher slopes of the Col de la Couillole. That’s just what he does.

Look at some of his stats. He’s now won 15 Tour de France stages, taking him almost halfway to Mark Cavendish’s record of 35 and he’s still only 25 years of age.

Already this year between the Giro d’Italia and Le Tour he has racked up 10 stage wins, which is more Grand Tour victories than Vingegaard and Evenepoel each have in their entire careers. And in 40 days of Grand Tour racing in 2024, Pogacar has ended 37 of them in yellow and has been second third and fourth in the other three.

There’s just no sating his appetite for showing his brilliance, and if he’s within reach of the leaders late on I can see him having another tilt at stage 20. If I know Tadej like I think I know him from the years of watching, that 26-year wait for a Giro-Tour double winner is going to end in spectacular style.

The odds imply a 26.7% chance of him winning, but many will see that as a low mark.

Richard Carapaz E/W @ 8/1

If Pogacar isn’t tempted to launch a trademark final kick, it might well be Carapaz who benefits most.

The Ecuadorian joined the break on Friday to hoover up the King of the Mountains points he needed to surpass Pogi in that classification, and he might just fancy his chances of another stage win if this stage shakes out similarly heading to the final 15 km.

After his win in stage 17, he seems to be a man with few worries on his mind, and a good old breakaway effort on Saturday would round out a great Tour.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.