Tour de France Stage 19 Predictions: Tadej’s day again, but get on 9/1 Remco

It’s serious business now as the 2024 Tour de France reaches Stage 19, and the beginning of a trio of days which could barely be better set up to decide who wins this year’s magnificently-contested race (live from 11:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

 After another breakaway day on Thursday, Friday returns to the mountains of the Alps, with the short 144.6km route from Embrun to Isola 2000 including two HC climbs and a Cat 1, including the negotiation of the highest pass in Europe. My Tour de France Stage 19 predictions will be based on this being a critical stage in the GC tussle.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Race leader Tadej Pogacar is – with good reason – a huge 8/11 favourite to win stage 19, with Jonas Vingegaard at 5/1. Richard Carapaz, whose brilliance up the hills helped him to win stage 17 on Wednesday, is 7/1 and Tour debutant Remco Evenepoel is 9/1 to win his second stage of the event.

Beyond them, Jayco AlUla’s Simon Yates is 16/1 and Movistar’s Enric Mas 25/1.

Cycling Odds

This could be a brutal day, despite it being the third-shortest route on this year’s race outside of time trials. The first 20km will ease the riders in, but after that it will be a full-on battle up steeps climbs and down hugely technical descents.

The 2,109m high-category Col de Vars is an 18.8km climb at an average gradient of 5.7%, with the Col de la Bonette following immediately after the descent. The Bonette’s summit is at a massive 2,802m of elevation, and is reached by a 22.9km climb at an average 6.9% which reaches 13% on its final kilometre.

Those who manage to get over the top will then have a tricky descent, a false flat, and then the day’s final climb – a 16.1km trip up to the Isola 2000 ski station at 7.1% – at whose summit, the winner will be crowned.

And with just two days of racing to come after this one, Friday’s could well be the stage which settles the 2024 Tour if Tadej Pogacar again gets one over on Jonas Vingegaard.

The Slovenian has managed to drop his great rival four times on key points of mountain stages, meaning he holds a 3:11 lead going into stage 19. And if he can add a bit more time into that lead, there’s every chance that Vingegaard and his Visma-Lease A Bike team will all-but concede defeat with two days to go.

Remco Evenepoel will still battle on from his position in third, with his demeanour during this his debut Tour de France suggesting he has learned from his blow-out at last year’s Vuelta a Espana and very much targeted a podium finish without burning himself out gunning for the ultimate prize.

Beyond the GC leaders, there’s always the hope that one of the great climbers will get involved but it very much feels like another three-way shoot-out for glory.

Tadej Pogacar @ 8/11

This could be the great man’s day to go for the throat. It is exactly because he doesn’t pass up opportunities like this that many observers are starting to call him the best bike racer ever.

Some might sit on Vingegaard’s wheel and make the Dane do all the work right up to the line given a lead the size of Pogacar’s, but it has been on just these sorts of days that the 2020 and 2021 winner has built up this lead and he won’t rest on his laurels just yet.

He will know that another day like last Sunday in the Pyrenees, when he gained another 1:12 on Vingegaard up the Plateau de Beille, will basically finish the job in the General Classification. And that is the only outcome I can really see happening.

To foil him, Vingegaard would need the whole of his remaining Visma team pulling for him, but all Pogacar has to do is hold his rival’s wheel before his trademark late burst.

If he’s not done so already, I can see him dropping Jonas around 10km from the end as the climb to Isola momentarily gets back up to a 9% gradient.

Even at 8/11, and an implied probability of 57.9%, that’s a bit of a bargain by my reckoning.

Remco Evenepoel E/W @ 9/1

While Vingegaard is the likely main threat to Pogacar, Evenepoel feels like a shoo-in for a top-three finish, just as he has five times already.

Four of those have come on just this sort of mountain stage, with the Belgian playing things at his own pace regardless of the Pogi-Jonas histrionics going on elsewhere.

He’s already come in as an each-way shout for us twice, so I’m not going to overthink this one.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.