Tour de France Stage 17 Predictions: 7/1 Carapaz to lead successful break?
We’re back up the mountain tracks on Wednesday’s Stage 17 of the 2024 Tour de France, with this one potentially being a wildcard day on the 177.8km Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux to the Superdevoluy ski station as the race returns to the Alps (live from 11:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).
The stage profile suggests this could be a breakaway day, but it could become a GC battle late on if Visma-Lease a Bike sense this is one of their few opportunities to get Jonas Vingegaard close to the yellow jersey wearer Tadej Pogacar. My Tour de France Stage 17 predictions are based on the likelihood this will be a breakaway day.
With three stage victories already on days which have seen significant elevation, Tour leader Tadej Pogacar is again the favourite to come in first on Wednesday, priced by Betfred at 5/2.
Next up are some of the race’s favoured breakaway riders, with EF Education-EasyPost pair Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy at 7/1 and 11/1 respectively. Reigning champion Jonas Vingegaard is available at 12/1, implying a 7.7% win probability, with Tobias Johannessen 16/1 and both Simon Yates and Oier Lazkano at 18/1.
The Alps are the scene once more as the loop course of 2024 returns us to the south-east of France a fortnight on from the transfer in from Italy. And with the final flat stage having been negotiated on Tuesday, all eyes will be on the General Classification for the final five days.
But maybe not here!
With Pogacar holding a 3:09 lead over Vingegaard in the race for yellow, Visma need to be smart about when they burn all their resources in a bid to gang up on the UAE Team Emirates rider and push the Dane back into serious contention. That, though, appears unlikely today.
Pogacar might be at his best on the high mountain stages, but perversely it is also on those toughest of days that a team effort to overhaul him might be most likely to succeed. And I don’t see this stage to Superdevoluy providing quite that opportunity.
Wednesday should offer enough of a carrot for those teams without a win on this year’s Tour to throw riders into the breakaway, and once they reach the Cat 2 Col Bayard (6.8km at 7.3%) and Cat 1 Col du Noyer (7.5km at 8.1%), both of them in the final 40 kilometres, they might find that the peloton is happy enough to leave any GC battles for another day.
I’m banking on Visma keeping their powder dry and Pogacar being happy to move 24 hours nearer to victory without burning too much energy with a bunch of more testing days to come.
Richard Carapaz @ 7/1
Carapaz is always a candidate on a breakaway day, and with EF Education-EasyPost having not recorded a victory at Le Tour since Magnus Cort’s win on stage 10 of 2022 (48 race days ago), there could be a concerted threat from the team in pink here.
The Ecuadorian has been part of two 140km-plus breaks already on this Tour, and while there was criticism of his inability to use energy correctly on Sunday’s breakaway approaching the Plateau de Beille, there could be a more dedicated focus here in the knowledge that, for once, the GC guys might let him and his other risk-takers get on with it.
A six-time stage winner in Grand Tours without ever crossing the line first in the Tour de France, I’m going for Carapaz to finally break his duck in l’Hexagone.
Jai Hindley E/W @ 33/1
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe are one of 12 teams still searching for a victory in Le Tour ’24, thanks largely to the early withdrawal of team leader Primoz Roglic following crashes on successive days on stages 11 and 12.
Since then, Red Bull have almost looked at a loss of direction, but Hindley was a part of the breakaway which spent almost 170km clear of the peloton on Sunday’s brutal stage 15 up to Plateau de Beille.
And this could be another opportunity for the climbing specialist to take a punt on getting out in front, with the distinct possibility that the break could hold if Visma have even a hunch that this isn’t the day to really attempt to break Pogacar.
A former Giro d’Italia winner, the Australian is as good an outside shot as any possible breakaway rider, and 33/1 is a real tempter.
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