Tour de France Stage 13 Predictions: 7/2 Girmay quadruple or 20/1 De Lie debut win

The sprint-heavy 2024 edition of the Tour de France takes in its seventh flat course on Friday as Stage 13 tees up a weekend in the Pyrenees with a 165.3km trip from Agen to Pau (live from 12:00 BST on Eurosport 1, 14:00 BST on ITV4).

While Primoz Roglic lost ground on the top three due to a late crash on Thursday, the majority of the day was exactly as expected, including a 7/1 winner for me as Biniam Girmay took a third win of Le Tour ‘24. My Tour de France Stage 13 predictions foresee a similar story 24 hours on.

Tour de France Betting Odds

The odds makers have gone once more for Jasper Philipsen as favourite. He’s 9/4 despite winning just one of six sprint stages thus far. Girmay is 7/2 to follow yesterday’s win number three with a fourth success, with Wout van Aert – who finished immediately behind the Girmay – at 8/1.

Mark Cavendish is 14/1 to win a 36th career Tour stage, with Magnus Cort, Arnaud De Lie and Dylan Groenewegen all available at 20/1.

Cycling Odds

This has so far been one of the flatter Tour de France routes, but as the Pyrenees come into sight, there will be sprinters’ teams who will be insistent on their main man making the most of this opportunity to win ahead of a tougher final week.

The pressure is off Girmay, though, who came into the Tour as an expected lead-out man for his Intermarche-Wanty teammate Gerben Thijssen. But after mopping up in stage three in Turin after a chaotic run-in, the Eritrean has taken the mantle on brilliantly to win a further two stages.

The green jersey wearer is still the only rider to claim more than a single stage win so far, and he has to be among the favourites to take the tape in Pau on a day when there are a couple of minor Cat 4 climbs late on but the final 20km looks pretty flat.

As with most sprint stages, there will be jostling for position around the final couple of corners after the flamme rouge, but once the peloton hits Rue Michelet with around 600m to go, it ought to be a flat-out race to the line.

Jasper Philipsen will hope to be back in the mix on Friday having come up short in Villeneuve-sur-Lot after losing teammate Mathieu van der Poel in the crash 5km from home which also saw Roglic hit the deck and see his GC hopes evaporate.

Fabio Jakobsen’s withdrawal early on stage 12 also narrows the potential sprint field, although he had failed to excel and only registered fifth and seventh-placed finishes so far.

All of this, of course, comes with a caveat, since those Cat 4 climbs do throw up the outside chance of a breakaway holding.

Biniam Girmay @ 7/2

I see this coming down to the sprinters, and whereas I came into the race a fortnight ago expecting to be throwing my weight behind Jasper Philipsen most of the way, I just can’t go with him given the lack of value in his 9/4 price and his current underwhelming form.

Girmay, on the other hand, has grasped the opportunity to make a statement with both hands. Previously a winner in the Giro d’Italia and Tour de Suisse, nobody can have foreseen just what an impact he would leave on the greatest show on the road over the past couple of weeks.

And now that he has the green jersey goal in sight, and the belief that he belongs, there appears to be little holding him back. I can see that upright gait steaming through for another win in Pau to make African sports fans even more proud than he has already made them.

Arnaud De Lie E/W @ 20/1

I was thinking Philipsen, but he’s too short a chance. Then I was pondering Groenewegen, who came in for me in stage six. But in truth, my hunch remains with Arnaud De Lie as it was on Thursday.

There, he came in fifth – his fifth top-five finish – and I fancy he can make a case here for a third third (sorry, tongue-twisters ahoy!)

De Lie has impressed many observers and won the backing of some of the biggest names in the sport, and at 20/1 I have to have a stab. The Lotto Dstny man has an implied 4.8% chance of victory, but I can see him finishing third at least in Pau.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.