- Detroit is a -125 moneyline favorite in the Tigers vs Guardians odds for Game 5 of the ALDS on Saturday
- AL Cy Young-favorite Tarik Skubal (1-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the ball for Detroit, while Cleveland counters with Matthew Boyd (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
- See the Tigers vs Guardians odds, predictions and player props to target for Game 5, below
The MLB playoffs have been dramatic at every turn. On Thursday, it was Cleveland’s turn to summon some late-game heroics. The Guardians rallied to beat the Tigers on the road in Game 4, forcing a series deciding Game 5 on Saturday.
Despite the scene shifting back to Cleveland, it’s Detroit that’s earning the respect of online sportsbooks in the latest MLB odds.
Tigers vs Guardians Game 5 Odds
| Teams | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | -1.5 (+154) | -125 | O 6 (+100) |
| Cleveland Guardians | +1.5 (-185) | -105 | U 6 (-120) |
The Tigers are currently -125 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 6. Early betting action is completely one-sided, with Detroit drawing 79% of the moneyline tickets, and 90% of the handle.
First pitch has been swapped from 8:08 pm ET to 1:08 pm ET due to inclement weather, but the earlier start also allows Cleveland area fans the opportunity to sweat this contest and the Oregon-Ohio State mega tilt later in the evening.
Odds as of Oct. 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings promo code to wager on the 2024 MLB playoffs.
Tigers vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
One of the main reasons Detroit is favored to advance is the pitching matchup. AL Cy Young odds favorite Tarik Skubal takes the ball for the Tigers, and his stellar regular season has carried over to the playoffs.
Skubal is 1-0 in two postseason starts, and has yet to give up a run. He’s scattered just seven hits and issued one walk in 13 innings, while striking out 14. He pitched a gem in Detroit’s Game 2 victory, shutting out Cleveland over 7 innings. He fanned 8 Guardians, continuing his calendar-long dominance over their lineup.
Tarik Skubal vs Matthew Boyd 2024 Playoff Stats
| 1-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0.00 | ERA | 0.00 |
| 1.47 | FIP | 2.31 |
| 0.62 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 30.4% | K% | 26.3% |
Skubal is now 2-0 in three starts versus Cleveland this year, yielding only one run in 14 innings. The Guardians lineup has a lifetime average of .220 against the lefty, with no home runs and only seven extra-base hits.
Cleveland, meanwhile, will counter with Matthew Boyd. The 33-year-old didn’t allow a run in his Game 2 outing against Detroit, but lasted only 4.2 innings. That marks the fourth straight start he didn’t make it out of the 5th, and another short outing would put a lot of pressure on a tired Guardians bullpen.
No Cleveland starter has made it through the 5th inning so far in this series, and it will be asking a lot of the Guardians relievers to deliver another 4+ innings of flawless relief work.
Carpenter’s Status in Doubt
Cleveland did get some potential good news ahead of Saturday, as the status of Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter is in doubt. Carpenter was injured in Thursday’s loss, and the team will likely wait until just before game time before determining if he’ll play.
He was the hero in Game 2, smacking the decisive go-ahead home run. The 27-year-old hit 18 homers in 87 games this season, and was slashing .429/.429/.857 versus the Guardians this season. His potential loss is a devastating blow to Detroit’s chances in the World Series odds, but one they can overcome in this matchup.
Tigers vs Guardians Player Props to Target
With Carpenter out or potentially hobbled, Detroit will need other hitters to step up. Matt Vierling is an excellent candidate to do so, especially versus Boyd.
Vierling hit left-handed pitching much harder than righties this season, to the tune of a .275/.329/.391 slash line. He slugged .455 versus Cleveland hurlers, and sees the ball very well coming out of Boyd’s hand. Vierling drew walks in his only two career plate appearances against Boyd.
No Tigers vs Guardians player props card is complete without Skubal. He’s -155 to clear 5.5 strikeouts, something he’s easily done in every start this postseason, as well as both of his outings against the Guardians in 2024.
Tarik Skubal is a psychopath bonafide ace and that’s the best combination of characteristics that you can be in this beautiful sport. pic.twitter.com/XO333pcDcm
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) October 7, 2024
He boasts a 30.4% strikeout rate in the playoffs, and has fanned members of the Cleveland lineup 22 times in 82 career at-bats.
- Matt Vierling 1+ Hits (-195)
- Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
To make matters worse for the Guardians, Skubal will also be on full rest. Detroit has yet to stretch him out past seven innings this postseason, because they haven’t needed to.
This game projects to be tight and low scoring, which suggests the Tigers may have to lean on their ace into the later innings. That spells trouble for Cleveland, because they haven’t mustered any offense against Skubal all season.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-125)
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