One thing that worries me at the moment about any projection that is based on current party choice polling is, as I have argued before, that a very high proportion of GE2019 Tory voters are not giving a voting intention which I believe distorts polling outcomes.
Thus the latest YouGov has just 45% of this group saying Tory but a whopping 21% saying don’t know and 7% saying they would not vote. Only 11% of GE2019 CON voters have switched to LAB
The thing about this group is that they turnout at general elections and we should expect them to do the same next time. My guess is that a large proportion of current GE2019 CON don’t know will end up in the Tory camp.
My strong view is that the LAB position is being artificially inflated.
