When this news broke Alastair Meeks made this observation to me which I wholeheartedly agree with ‘I can’t imagine Boris Johnson would have been given findings in advance to respond to unless they had found him to be in breach.’

My view is that I expect Boris Johnson’s outriders are likely to spend the next few weeks bitterly denouncing the committee which will be further evidence that Boris Johnson is going to be censured by the committee. Because of the egregious and persistent nature of Boris Johnson’s breaches which will lead to a by election which I expect him to lose.

Lord Ashcroft has polled that Boris Johnson would hold his seat in a by election.

I have my doubts about this polling because as Lord Ashcroft would attest from his experiences at the 2015 general election, constituency polling is bloody hard work and often unreliable. For me there are two eyebrow raising things with this poll. Firstly this poll represents a 1% swing to the Tories from Labour since the 2019 general election, to me that seems very unlikely, and second there’s this.

The latter point shows how hard it is to conduct constituency polling. I suspect if there was a recall by election and Boris Johnson stood as the Tory candidate, he would experience just as much humiliation and pain if he hired five hundred dominatrices concurrently one night and at the end of the evening told them ‘it’s time to hit the sack.’

As we approach the first anniversary of Boris Johnson’s ousting, he may be about experience another ousting.

TSE