Not much movement, and yet lots of movement (for some).The national polling gap continues to narrow slightly, fairly uniformly (we’ll get to Princeton). And yet… Harris’s vote share is actually increasing, just slightly slower than Trump’s. It would seem that both sides’ voters are firming up their views. Harris may be happy to have a lead, Trump may be happy the lead might not be enough for Harris to overcome the disadvantage the Dems have in the Electoral College. Princeton Electoral Consortium had a big shift to Trump this week. Unlike the others, their model only uses state polls, and it hasn’t been a great week for the Dems at state level, so while the end result is slightly unexpected, it is logical.

In the Electoral College, the PEC model shift means that Trump comes out with a significant lead, 282-256/RCP goes even further – they have moved both Michigan and Nevada from Harris to Trump, and Pennsylvania from tied to Trump. They are pretty isolated in making those shifts, so DYOR.

Despite all this, the Senate map sees no shifts at all for anyone. Steady as she goes.

It’s worth remembering – which is why I’m reminding you – that a lot of these states are being put into one or other candidate’s column by tiniy margins, often lesss than 1%. It wouldn’t take much of a movemement for either Harris or Trump to end up winning the Electoral College by a significant margin, and then all we’ll hear about is landslides. Just over three weeks to go…

James Doyle