The above breakdown from the latest Opinium poll looks at what those who voted CON at GE2019 are now saying.
As can be seen the Tories are holding onto just 39% of their general election vote with the next biggest segment being “Won’t vote/Don’t Know”.
This is quite different from those polling breakdowns that just focus on those who have a current voting intention.
My judgment is that this is nothing like the big endorsement for LAB that Starmer’s party would like. A lot of the Won’t/DK segment will surely filter back to the Tories at the general election. This is why I still think that a LAB majority bet is not the certainty that the betting odds rate it at.
