As we have seen on previous threads many Tory supporters are getting a little bit of the confidence back with the latest R&W Paul having the deficit down to just 15%. The same trend has been seen with other firms and we are getting a bit closer to the point where a LAB majority might just be in the balance.
One thing is looking pretty clear and that the days of Labour leads of 20% plus are no longer there and we are seeing a little bit of a recovery in the LDs totals.
Starmer is still retaining his lead as the best prime minister but that is not as large as it was. What is clear is that the next election might be a fair bit closer than looked likely and the big issue might be whether Labour can secure an overall majority or not.
In the betting Starmer’s needs 326 seats in order to secure what the bookmakers regard as a majority. In reality because of the SF MPs who do not take their seats it might be possible for Labour to be in control without relying on other parties on 318.
As I generally point out when discussing these things Corbyn’s party won just 202 seats at GE2019 which means that Labour is going to need to make nearly as many gains as Tony Blair secured at GE1997.
One thing there is no indication about and that is the Tories retaining a majority.
