The Insight: How Iraola shook off dissenters to win hearts at AFC Bournemouth

After failing to win any of his first nine Premier League games in charge of AFC Bournemouth, the knives were out for Andoni Iraola. The usual suspects in the media questioned the logic of replacing Gary O’Neil, an English manager who led the Cherries to safety last season, with an ‘unproven in our league’ Spaniard. A 2-1 defeat to Wolves, now under the tutelage of O’Neil, at the Vitality Stadium in October, added fuel to the fire.

But the south coast side responded a week later with a 2-1 win over Burnley, and they are now unbeaten in their last five games, of which they have won four. Newcastle United, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Manchester United were all dispatched by an aggregate of 10-1, while only a 90th-minute equaliser from Ollie Watkins denied them all three points against Aston Villa.

Bournemouth’s most recent game, at home to Luton Town on Saturday, was abandoned in the second half due to the cardiac arrest suffered by visiting defender Tom Lockyer, so they missed out on the opportunity to move three places up to 11th. But with a couple of enticing fixtures against Nottingham Forest and Fulham either side of Christmas, the Cherries are still in a strong position to end the calendar year in the top half. But just how have they reached this point, less than two months after Iraola’s nadir against Wolves?

The decision to appoint Iraola was seemingly borne out of a desire to install a more entertaining and sustainable style of play, with the 41-year-old favouring a high press. As head coach of Rayo Vallecano last season, Iraola’s side had 68 shot-ending high turnovers in La Liga, eight more than any other club in the division [The Analyst].

Discussing the appointment of Iraola, chairman Bill Foley told the Men in Blazers podcast in September:

“It was really a style of play that we were engaging in. We were really a counter-attacking team. I felt we needed to be on the offence.

“We needed to be aggressive, we needed to attack. That’s Andoni’s style. He’s a [Marcelo] Bielsa student and fast-paced.”

Bill Foley

The shift in Bournemouth’s approach under him has been visible, as can be observed in The Analyst’s team style model, which ranks direct speed (a measure of how quickly a team progresses the ball upfield) against passes per sequence (the average number of passes per sequence).

According to the model, Bournemouth are one of the fastest and most direct teams in the Premier League, with only Luton, Sheffield United and Everton playing fewer passes per sequence. Intriguingly, the managers of those three teams are all British, and eight of the 10 teams with the fewest passes per sequence are coached by someone from the UK. Eddie Howe is the only domestic boss in charge of a side that resides in the more ‘intricate’ half. So, is Iraola helping to dispel some myths about foreign managers and their style of play?

Meanwhile, at the height of Bournemouth’s struggles in October, former Crystal Palace owner and chairman Simon Jordan told talkSPORT:

“I don’t know what they saw in him, I don’t know why they appointed him. I don’t think that what the chairman or owner said was particularly bright, in terms of describing data analysts making the decision alongside him and wanting a style of football.

“I don’t think that’s the voice of an experienced football club owner in this country.”

Simon Jordan

However, while the results took a while to arrive, most Bournemouth fans were willing to persevere with Iraola after some encouraging performances which indicated that they were trying to move away from the more languid style of play under their previous manager. Interestingly, The Analyst’s team style comparison shows Wolves as a much slower side in possession, with more passes per sequence.

While the possession and passing statistics are similar to last season, the Cherries are now averaging 12.3 shots per game compared to 9.4 last season, which ranked them bottom for that metric [WhoScored]. They are currently 12th in that table now, and the increase in the number of shots they are taking has resulted in a jump in the amount they are getting on target, from 3.5pg last season to 4.9pg this term. They’ve not been pot-shots, either.

In 2022-23, Bournemouth’s xG was 39.46. After 16 Premier League games this season, it’s already at 22.8, so they are well on their way to smashing their tally under O’Neil (and Scott Parker for the first four games). They’re also top for the number of high turnovers that have ended with a goal. Despite ranking 11th for number of high turnovers and eighth for shot-ending turnovers, no club can match the six goals they have scored from those situations.

Key to an improvement in front of goal has been striker Dominic Solanke, who already has three more goals than he managed in 33 Premier League appearances last season. But has the former Chelsea and Liverpool forward markedly improved, or has he just been supplied in more dangerous areas?

Well, his shooting accuracy last season (39%) is almost identical to his tally this term (37%), and he has already missed one more big chance (six) under Iraola than he did in the entirety of the last campaign. The biggest difference is the sheer volume of opportunities he is being presented with. His personal xG of 9.32 in 2022-23 has already been beaten, with Solanke currently on 9.72 [Understat] after 16 league games, not including the hour or so of action played on Saturday, when he thought he had scored his ninth Premier League goal of the campaign (the match is likely to be replayed in its entirety, thus ruling out his effort against The Hatters).

Bournemouth do need to be mindful that they don’t become over-reliant on Solanke, given he has netted five more than their next highest goalscorer, Antoine Semenyo. An injury to their main man would leave them looking pretty toothless at the top end of the pitch, with stand-in striker Kieffer Moore unable to offer the same movement and mobility provided by Solanke.

Semenyo, Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier are an exciting trio behind Solanke, though, with the latter already on two goals and three assists despite a delayed start to the season owing to injury. Leeds United loanee Luis Sinisterra and £20m Burkina Faso international Dango Ouattara are also waiting in the wings for a run in the side, so there are plenty of attacking options at Iraola’s disposal.

Supporters have also rarely seen the two central midfielders signed in the summer to help fill the void of the departed Jefferson Lerma. Ryan Christie and Lewis Cook have done a sterling job in protecting the defence, with the former ranking 10th in the league for most tackles made, but Tyler Adams and Alex Scott have the potential to raise the ceiling of this side when they are fully integrated.

It’s been a pretty new-look backline under Iraola, too, with Ilya Zabarnyi settled in the starting XI now after barely featuring in the first half of the year under O’Neil. Milos Kerkez is another new addition to the defence following his summer move from AZ Alkmaar, and the Hungarian left-back has impressed with his tough-tackling displays.

The defence looks to have shored up now, with 27 of the 30 Premier League goals they have conceded coming in their first 11 games – evidence of a side in transition. The Cherries have now kept three clean sheets in their last five, a run which has seen them shut out an array of expensive attacking talents at Manchester United and Newcastle.

It’s still early days in the Iraola era on the south coast, but the signs are promising. Those connected to the club know all too well that football is a volatile industry, and a bad run of results is usually only around the corner for the so-called ‘smaller’ sides in the Premier League.

However, based on the evidence presented so far, the Cherries look to have implemented a system that is more enjoyable for both players and supporters.

Time will tell just how sustainable it is over a longer period, but for now, Iraola deserves his flowers for orchestrating such an improvement in performances and for navigating a difficult period as he got to grips with a new club, in a new league, in a new country.