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If you don’t believe it’s possible for people to fail upward, consider the career of University of Texas head football coach Steve Sarkisian.

A hotshot assistant for Pete Carroll’s dominant USC teams in the 2000s, Sarkisian took over a University of Washington program that had gone winless in 2008. The team went 5-7 in Sark’s first year at the helm, including a stunning 16-13 win over the third-ranked Trojans.

But then Sark’s success plateaued, earning him the nickname “Seven-Win Steve” as the Huskies reeled off a few minor bowl wins in subsequent seasons. Nevertheless, this earned him a return trip to USC, this time as head coach. He lasted a season-and-a-half before a drinking problem — one that was later reported to have already been in full bloom at Washington — ended his Trojan tenure.

Sark then surfaced as a staffer at an even bigger program, the University of Alabama, eventually ascending to offensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa after a brief, subpar stint in the same role with the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons. Now, Sarkisian is in his third year as head coach of the Big 12 champion University of Texas, which earned a spot in the College Football Playoff largely on the strength of an early-season victory over the Crimson Tide.

If Sark’s roller coaster of a career is to reach its pinnacle, he’ll need to go right through at least one former employer in the University of Washington, which will square off against the Longhorns in the national semifinals Monday in New Orleans. Should Texas advance to the national championship game, it will face either top-ranked Michigan or — drumroll, please — Alabama. Texas would enter as an underdog versus either squad, according to America’s major mobile betting apps.

Remember the Alamo

Despite being the lower-ranked team, Texas enters Monday’s semifinal against Washington as anywhere from a 4-point favorite at ESPN BET and SuperBook Sports to a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel. But the undefeated Huskies have thrived as underdogs this season, beating favored Oregon State and Oregon down the stretch and going 3-1 against the spread as either an underdog or a favorite of a touchdown or less.

Oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair, with the total ranging from 62.5 at FanDuel to 64 at BetRivers. While star quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Quinn Ewers will understandably garner much of the attention, both squads feature stellar running games and the winner could be determined by who wins the battle of the trenches.

The best moneyline price on the Huskies to win is the +165 being offered by the SuperBook, while Texas backers should look to FanDuel at -184. It’s worth noting that UW defeated Texas in last season’s Alamo Bowl, although the Longhorns were without star running back Bijan Robinson in that game.

As of Thursday afternoon at bet365, 54% of moneyline bets were on Texas, while 58% of all spread bets were on Washington and 70% of bets on the points total were on the over.

Rose Bowl expected to produce national champ

If oddsmakers are to be trusted, the eventual national champion is likely to emerge from the other semifinal, which pits Michigan against Alabama at the Rose Bowl in California. Those two teams are co-favorites at +190 to win it all at BetRivers, whereas Texas is +270 and Washington a distant 7/1.

In Pasadena, Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite at ESPN BET and FanDuel and a 2-point favorite at BetRivers and the SuperBook. The best moneyline price for Michigan backers is -125 at ESPN BET, while Crimson Tide believers should play the +110 at the SuperBook.

While both teams are capable of putting up points and feature dual-threat quarterbacks in J.J. McCarthy and Jalen Milroe, analysts expect defense to hold sway, as only the SuperBook’s 45-point total deviates from the 44.5 over/under at other sportsbooks.

At bet365, 65% of moneyline bets were on Alabama as of Thursday afternoon, while 51% of all spread bets were on the Crimson Tide and 80% of bets on the points total were on the over.

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