Tennis Betting Tips: Norrie to get beaten in Sweden

Wimbledon is done and dusted. Carlos Alcaraz has retained his crown at the All England Lawn Club in the men’s singles, while Barbora Krejcikova claimed her first women’s singles title in SW19.

The tennis calendar presses on, however, and our attention turns to the many ATP and WTA events simultaneously taking place around Europe. I have picked out my three best bets from Monday’s offerings.

Tennis Odds

Jozef Kovalik to beat Cameron Norrie at the Swedish Open @ 5/4

Cameron Norrie will be disappointed that he only went as far as the third round at Wimbledon, losing out to Alexander Zverev in straight sets. The Brit will be looking to rebuild his confidence in Bastad for the Swedish Open, but I don’t think he will get much joy here.

He comes up against Slovakian Jozef Kovalik in the round of 32 on Monday, and I think he will fall at the first hurdle. He will still be raw from his Wimbledon campaign, and although clay is statistically his strongest surface, Kovalik has been excelling on it in 2024.

The Slovak has a 9-5 record on clay this season and he has won 75% of his service games. His break-point conversion rate is even 36% which suggests that he will be able to thrive under moments of pressure against Norrie.

Kovalik also takes into this match a psychological advantage, having prevailed in their previous meeting at the second round of the Greece F4 in straight sets. This is sure to play a factor in this clash.

I think Kovalik to win this match outright could be a shrewd selection here.

Dominic Thiem to beat Juan Pablo Varillas 2-1 at the Swiss Open @ 18/5

Former world number three Dominic Thiem has failed to hit the heights after winning the US Open in 2020 and he heads to the Swiss Open having missed Wimbledon, while reaching just the first round at the Australian Open and falling in the second qualifier at Roland Garros.

The Austrian will be desperate for his fortunes to change in Switzerland for this event as he takes on Juan Pablo Varillas of Peru in the round of 32. Thiem is out of form with a record of 2-5 in tour-level matches this season, but what’s good for him is that his opponent hasn’t been great of late either.

Varillas’ record is 2-7 since mid-April and he has not been in the top 100 of the ATP rankings in nearly a year. What is going for both of them here is that they love to play on clay, and that could reignite their form.

This will be a difficult battle for both players but I am giving Thiem the edge because of his successes of the past. Additionally, on this surface, Thiem has won 77% of his service games and 20.6% of his return games in the last 12 months. I have him to win in three sets.

Karolina Muchova to beat Katarzyna Kawa 2-0 at the Palermo Ladies Open @ 8/15

Last year’s French Open finalist Karolina Muchova is hoping to rediscover the form that made her such a threat last year, having recently returned to action following her wrist injury, for which she underwent surgery in February.

Once again she should be one of the players to watch in the next few months if she can get back up to speed and playing how she was a year ago. The Czech star has only played three matches in this calendar year so far but I have her to beat Katarzyna Kawa on Monday.

She is still working her way back to peak performance and full fitness, but I still think her individual quality will be more than enough to see her past Kawa. Muchova was beaten by Paula Badosa in the first round of Wimbledon but she gave an excellent account of herself despite losing in straight sets.

She took five games in total against the Spaniard, and she didn’t look like someone who had hardly played this season. I think she is worth backing to win in straight sets on Monday.

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