Tennis Betting Tips: Americans to push hard on home soil

The US Open enters its ninth day of action on Tuesday and it’s all starting to heat up nicely ahead of the quarter-finals in both the men’s and women’s singles.

A match from both events is scheduled for today (BST), while a second from the women’s starts at midnight. All three feature in my tennis betting tips for Tuesday, September 3, which you can check out below.

Tennis Odds

Set Betting – Paula Badosa (SPA) to beat Emma Navarro (USA) 2-1 @ 3/1

Paula Badosa has enjoyed a stress-free run to the quarter-finals of the US Open Women’s Singles, losing just one set across four matches so far. The Spaniard beat Viktorija Golubic and Taylor Townsend in straight sets in her opening two rounds before recovering from a set down to beat Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the third round and subsequently winning 2-0 against Yafan Wang in the last 16 on Sunday.

The 26-year-old’s reward is a tie with American Emma Navarro, who will hope to have the majority of the crowd behind her in their quarter-final match on Tuesday. Navarro began the tournament in a similar fashion to Badosa, beating Anna Blinkova and Marta Kostyuk in straight sets before losing one in her third-round victory over Marta Kostyuk.

However, unlike her next opponent, who dropped just three games against Wang in the last 16, Navarro was taken to three sets by compatriot Coco Gauff on Sunday, losing 12 games en route to an unlikely win.

That was Navarro’s fourth career top-10 win, and her second in a matter of months against Gauff, who she beat in straight sets at Wimbledon to reach her maiden Grand Slam quarter-final. The 23-year-old’s form is perhaps best summarised by the statistic that 13 of her 14 career Grand Slam victories have come this calendar year.

Navarro will be up against it again on Tuesday, although her odds of winning are considered greater than against Gauff.

Badosa and Navarro have played each other once before, with the former emerging victorious over three sets (1-6, 6-4, 6-2) on clay at the Italian Open in May earlier this year. The Spaniard was well beaten in the first set but showed her powers of recovery by taking the second and third to reach the last 16 in Rome.

Tuesday’s contest could go right down to the wire, which is why backing three sets looks to be the way to go, with Badosa just edging out her opponent to advance to the semi-finals.

Total Games 4 – Over 42.5 in Tommy Fritz (USA) vs Alexander Zverev (GER) @ 1/1

There’s a tasty-looking quarter-final tie taking place at Flushing Meadows in the US Open Men’s Singles on Tuesday as Tommy Fritz and Alexander Zverev renew their rivalry.

The pair have faced off nine times previously, with Zverev edging the head-to-head record 5-4.

However, it’s the off-court coverage that has really piqued interest, with noises coming from Fritz’s box at Wimbledon – where his girlfriend Morgan Riddle was seated – earlier this year sparking displeasure from Zverev. Fritz won the last 16 tie 3-2 (4-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-3) and Riddle posted – and subsequently deleted – a video on social media that appeared to take aim at Zverev – something she later denied – and the off-court controversies that have shrouded his career.

So, there is a lot of intrigue around this quarter-final clash on Tuesday without even getting to the actual tennis.

Nevertheless, it’s the tennis that is more relevant, and the constant back and forth between the two players over the years has been fascinating. Zverev went 2-0 up in the head-to-head after victories in 2016 and 2018, but since then, neither the German nor the American have won back-to-back matches against each other.

Zverev won the first of this calendar year, winning 2-0 at the Italian Open in May before Fritz hit back at Wimbledon in July. The most recent match-up was a real thriller, with 55 total games across five sets.

Neither Fritz nor Zverev have endured any five-setters so far at this year’s US Open; the American beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Matteo Berrettini and Francisco Comesana in straight sets before overcoming Casper Ruud in four sets on Sunday, while the German has beaten each of Maximilian Marterer, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Brandon Nakashima 3-1, as well as Alexandre Muller 3-0 in the second round.

However, Fritz and Zverev face their toughest tests of the tournament on Tuesday, and both will be leaving everything out there on that court, which should serve up a classic tie for us all to enjoy.

I think this goes to four sets minimum, possibly five, with a tiebreak or two thrown in there, which would set us up nicely for the over 42.5 total games bet to land, as it did at Wimbledon less than two months ago.

Total Games – Under 20.5 in Qinwen Zheng (CHN) vs Aryna Sabalenka (Wrl) @ 1/1

Just under a month after winning gold at the Paris 2024 Olympics, Qinwen Zheng booked her place in the quarter-finals of the US Open Women’s Singles by beating Croatian Donna Vekic in the last 16 on Monday. The 21-year-old won 2-1, the third time in four matches she has dropped a set at Flushing Meadows following victories over Amanda Anisimova (2-1), Erika Andreeva (2-1) and Jule Niemeier (2-0).

The Chinese star’s reward is a last-eight meeting with world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, who coasted through the first couple of rounds, beating Priscilla Hon and Lucia Bronzetti in straight sets. The Belarusian dropped her first set of the tournament in a third-round victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova but returned to form in a straight-set success against Elise Mertens on Monday.

Sabalenka arrives into Tuesday’s contest as the favourite, holding a 2-0 head-to-head record against Zheng. The 26-year-old beat Zheng in straight sets (6-1, 6-4) in the quarter-finals of last year’s US Open before beating the 21-year-old in the final of the Australia Open in January to lift the second major singles title of her career. Both matches were relatively straightforward for Sabalenka, and she will be hoping for more of the same at Flushing Meadows.

There were just 17 total games between the pair here last year, and the same number in January’s final in Melbourne. Zheng has displayed her immense ability at various tournaments over the course of the year and should be able to build on the five games she won against Sabalenka in each of their previous meetings, but I still think the more experienced player will be able to get this tie done in straight sets, and without needing a tiebreaker.

Zheng has been forced into three sets on three occasions in the past nine days, and that could play into the hands of Sabalenka, who only went the distance against Alexandrova, and the former world No.1 holds an 8-1 record in Grand Slam quarter-finals.

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