USDJPY experienced a steep slump in early July, tumbling to a fresh two-month low of 137.23. Although the pair managed to erase a significant part of its decline, the rebound has stalled near the 200-period simple moving average (SMA).

This loss of positive momentum is also reflected in the short-term oscillators. Specifically, the MACD is weakening but holds above its 50-neutral mark, while the RSI is ticking downwards in the positive territory.

Should the rebound waver and the price reverse lower, the bears could target 141.14, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 145.06-137.23 downtrend. Breaching that wall, the price could re-enter the Ichimoku cloud before it challenges the 38.2% Fibo of 140.23. A dive beneath that zone could trigger a retreat towards the 23.6% Fibo of 139.08.

Alternatively, if the pair regains traction and jumps above the 200-period SMA, immediate resistance could be met at the 61.8% Fibo of 142.07. Conquering this barricade, traders might eye at the 78.6% Fibo of 143.38. Failing to halt there, the pair’s advance could come to a halt at the June peak of 145.06.

All in all, USDJPY’s rebound seems to be fading but the bulls have not totally surrendered yet. Hence, a break above the 200-period SMA is needed to shift the near-term bias back to bullish.