• NZDUSD in a steady uptrend since October 26

• Breaks above crucial levels and is ready to test the 200-day SMA

• Momentum indicators suggest more gains in the near term

NZDUSD has been staging a solid rebound from its 2023 low of 0.5772, aiming to erase a part of its long-term downtrend. Although the short-term oscillators suggest an intensifying positive momentum, the price is hovering very close to the upper Bollinger band, which could indicate overbought conditions.

If buyers attempt to push the price higher, immediate resistance could be met at 0.6064, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.6536-0.5772 downtrend. Piercing through that wall, the pair might face the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ahead of the 50.0% Fibo of 0.6154. Further upside moves could then stall at the 61.8% Fibo of 0.6244.

Alternatively, bearish actions could send the pair lower to test the 23.6% Fibo of 0.5952. A violation of that region could open the door for the September low of 0.5858. Failing to halt there, the price could then test the 2023 bottom of 0.5772.

Overall, NZDUSD seems to be in a recovery mode during the past month. However, a clear break above the 200-day SMA is needed to revive the bulls’ hopes for a long-term trend reversal.