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NZDUSD continues to climb higher
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Strong reaction following the recent correction
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Momentum indicators are turning bullish
NZDUSD is trading higher again today, recording its ninth green candle in the past 11 sessions and cancelling out almost completely the recent correction. The overall sentiment has improved following last week’s rout with the market now focusing on the RBNZ meeting held during tomorrow’s Asian session. There are strong market expectations for a rate cut but economists point to a possible postponement of the expected policy easing to October.
In the meantime, the momentum indicators are mostly turning bullish. Specifically, the RSI has climbed above its 50-midpoint, indicating that the bullish pressure is increasing. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is edging higher, opening the gap from its moving average, and heading towards its overbought area (OB). Only the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has yet to acknowledge the current bullish move.
If the bulls remain confident, they could try to push NZDUSD above the busy 0.6037-0.6092 range, which is defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the July 14, 2022 low, and the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving average (SMAs). If they manage to overcome this key resistance area, the path is clear until the October 1, 2019 low at 0.6198, a tad below the June 12 local peak.
On the flip side, the bears are trying to gain market control, keep NZDUSD below the 0.6037-0.6092 range, and then gradually stage a sell-off towards the May 15, 2022 low at 0.5920. If successful, they could then retest the support set by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 5, 2022 – October 13, 2022 downtrend at 0.5870.
To sum up, NZDUSD bulls are firmly back in control, but maintaining their recent gains could be an enormous task if the RBNZ announces a rate cut overnight.
