• Nvidia shares climb in recent days, recapturing 50-day average

• However, bigger picture appears neutral as market lacks direction

• If stock retreats, the massive earnings gap below is a major risk

Nvidia shares have staged a sensational rally this year, hitting a new record high in late August. The market then drifted lower, but the 408.00 region defended the price action and shares have risen in recent days to reclaim the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). That said, the broader outlook appears neutral, as Nvidia shares have essentially been trading sideways for months now. 

Momentum oscillators endorse a directionless market as well, with the RSI and the MACD both trading near their neutral levels, providing no real insights as to what comes next. 

Should the latest recovery continue, the first obstacle for buyers to overcome would probably be 465.00, a zone that is more visible on the four-hour chart. If that’s violated, the spotlight would shift towards the record peak of 498.00. 

On the flipside, if sellers retake the wheel, another battle could take place near the 408.00 area. Piercing below that, there isn’t much support until the 373.00 level. Even lower, the market would fall into a massive earnings gap from May, which if filled, could take prices all the way down to 317.00. 

In conclusion, the medium term outlook seems neutral for now. For that to change, the price either needs to hit new record highs or fall below the 408.00 territory.