The US dollar index (futures) got hammered during an intense week of central bank meetings despite the Fed telegraphing additional rate hikes ahead.
The index could not climb back above the 103.00 level and the key ascending line, activating fresh selling towards 101.61 on Thursday. The RSI and stochastic oscillator have yet to confirm oversold conditions, suggesting the bearish wave still has room to go. If that proves to be the case, the price could tumble towards the 2023 floor of 100.75. Failure to rebound here could see a continuation of the downtrend towards the 99.45 handle. Then, another aggressive downfall could follow to 97.50.
If the bulls crawl back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 89.49-114.71 uptrend at 102.10, they may experience another fight near the 103.00-103.40 wall. A decisive extension higher could retest May’s bar of 104.20 before speeding up to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 105.00.
In short, the US dollar index could witness more losses in the coming sessions, likely bringing the 100.75 crucial support region under examination.
