Tanaka vs Rodriguez Predictions: Kosei won’t get the KO

Kosei Tanaka makes the first defence of his WBO super flyweight world title this Saturday, July 22 against Jonathan Rodriguez. The bout takes place at the Kokugikan Arena on the undercard of Junto Nakatani vs Vincent Astrolabio. Sky Sports Action will broadcast the event.

Here are my Tanaka vs Rodriguez predictions ahead of this super flyweight fight.

Tanaka reigns as the WBO king in a division that is rapidly becoming one of the hottest in boxing. The rise of Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez, the WBC and The Ring ruler, has shone a spotlight on the oft-neglected 115-pound division. With unbeaten IBF and WBA king Fernando Martinez and top contenders like Roman ‘Chocolatito’ Gonzalez, it is an exciting weight class right now.

Tanaka has recently joined the divisional elite. A former three-weight world champion at minimumweight, light flyweight and flyweight, he first competed for this particular belt in 2020, when he was knocked out by then-WBO super flyweight champion Kazuto Ioka in eight rounds. 

That was Tanaka’s debut at 115 pounds. A world title fight with Ioka, who would go on to hold that belt for five years in total, was a huge ask in a new division. But Tanaka has rebuilt at super flyweight, going 5-0 since. In his last bout, he captured the WBO flyweight championship that had eluded him. Tanaka outpointed Christian Rangel to take the vacant title and become a four-weight world champion.

Now Tanaka aims to defend his newly-won crown against Jonathan Rodriguez. Amazingly, the Mexican is one of two fighters named Jonathan Rodriguez, with a 25-year-old American of the same name boxing ex-Floyd Mayweather exhibition foe Tenshin Nasukawa on the undercard.

Rodriguez has fought for world honours before. In 2021 he was knocked down and outpointed by then-IBF kingpin Jerwin Ancajas. Four fights in four years have followed, with the challenger going 3-0-1. In his last bout, Rodriguez drew with Israel Gonzalez over 10 rounds. 

Rodriguez has enjoyed neither the activity nor the form that you would ideally want ahead of a world title chance. The Gonzalez stalemate came a year ago while his last win, a majority decision over Juan Ramirez Marquez, happened in September 2022. 

Of course, a world title chance can bring out the best in a fighter. When Tanaka was walloped by Ioka, it was hard to picture him one day wearing the very belt he was denied on that evening. But he did just that in February of this year.

Now Rodriguez looks to pull off a similar trick. Unlike Tanaka, he does not have a history of title success. But he has fought at this level before. Rodriguez is accustomed to world title action. Now he must grow accustomed to winning on these big nights.

Tanaka vs Rodriguez Fight Odds

Tanaka is 1/10 to secure the victory here. Rodriguez is a 7/1 underdog while the draw is priced at 18/1.

Tanaka vs Rodriguez Full Card

Junto Nakatani vs. Vincent Astrolabio for Nakatani’s WBC bantamweight title 

Kosei Tanaka vs. Jonathan Rodriguez for Tanaka’s WBO super flyweight title 

Riku Kano vs. Anthony Olascuaga for the vacant WBO flyweight title 

Tenshin Nasukawa vs. Jonathan Rodriguez 

Issei Aramoto vs. Mongontsooj Nandinerdene

Tanaka vs Rodriguez Prediction

I think Tanaka will be fairly comfortable here. Rodriguez has a bit of something about him, but I feel he has probably already peaked when it comes to world level. ‘Titan’ doesn’t have anything we haven’t seen before.

I think Tanaka will box his way to a victory here. I am backing the Japanese star to emerge with his title intact. My pick is Tanaka by decision at 5/6.

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