The looming threat of a potential East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike in January 2025, combined with President-elect Trump’s proposed tariff increases, has sparked a surge in import volumes at U.S. container ports, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Read also: Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Could Trigger Price Hikes and Supply Chain Disruptions
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, expressed concern over the dual challenges. “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” he said.
The urgency arises from stalled negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX). The two sides remain at odds over automation, with their current contract extension set to expire on January 15, just days before the planned implementation of tariffs following Trump’s January 20 inauguration.
Ben Hackett, an industry analyst, highlighted automation as the key sticking point in negotiations, stating that “shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can” to mitigate potential disruptions.
This proactive approach has driven significant growth at U.S. ports. In October, ports handled 2.25 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a 9.3% increase compared to last year. December forecasts project 2.14 million TEUs, reflecting a 14.3% year-over-year surge.
The NRF has also revised its early 2025 forecasts upward. January imports are expected to reach 2.2 million TEUs, marking a 12% increase from the previous year, while March is projected to grow by an impressive 12.7%.
Despite strong volumes, Drewry’s World Container Index shows declining container spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York since their summer peaks, though they remain higher than the previous year’s levels.
With ongoing labor disputes and looming tariff hikes, retailers and shippers are bracing for a turbulent start to 2025, frontloading cargo to stay ahead of potential disruptions.
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