Steelers vs Patriots Prediction: Points expected to be hard to come by

Thursday Night Football in the US features two legendary NFL franchises this week.

Kick-off UK-time is of course actually 01.15 in the early hours of Friday morning, Dec 8th, and the combatants are none other than the Pittsburgh Steelers, entertaining the New England Patriots.

The small matter of Six Super Bowls apiece. Clear of the field. National Football League royalty.

Match Markets

The core markets ahead of kick-off are;

Money line – Steelers 4/11, Patriots 11/5

Spread – Steelers -5.5 @ 10/11, Patriots +5.5 @ 10/11

Total points – Under 29.5 @ 20/21, Over 29.5 @ 20/23

These AFC giants are supporting acts rather than headlining at present, but Pittsburgh are far more advantageously placed. Standing second in the North at 7-5 they struggle a little for consistency but the Pats could only dream of such a record right now.

They prop up the East, a Division they’ve dominated for so long, with an ugly 2-10 record: losing their last 5 on the spin. Held to precisely zero points against the Chargers at weekend, the Gillette faithful must be wondering if the golden Brady years were just a figment of their imaginations.

Talking of QBs, New England have seemingly tired of the turnover-prone Mac Jones and elevated Bailey Zappe. It’s ironic that after not having to think about the position for so long, it’s now a hot seat no-one can seemingly own with any conviction, or degree of success.

Coach Belichick, speaking about Zappe at the beginning of the week, said “I thought he did some good things. Obviously, we didn’t produce any points offensively, so that wasn’t good. But that wasn’t just him, that’s everybody. We just have to do a better job there. But no turnovers at the quarterback position, and there were some positive plays. We just need to make more of them.”

Pittsburgh have QB problems of their own – Kenny Pickett is sidelined, and Mitch Trubisky will be under centre.

The Total points situation sees a line set at 29.5. Can’t recall too many lower in my time watching the NFL and I go back as far as the mighty Joe Montana. The traders certainly see grave difficulties potentially in moving those chains.

Team news

The following players didn’t participate in the latest training session and must rate very doubtful – for the Patriots, RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), and WR Demario Douglas (concussion).

For the Steelers, QB Kenny Pickett (ankle, already ruled out), RB Najee Harris (knee), and S James Pierre (shoulder).

It’s that time of year when in some of the venues (one thinks particularly of here in Pittsburgh; Chicago, New York, New England, Green Bay) it can be positively arctic. That rarely helps players in the skill positions fashion great scoring opportunities.

Everything is pointing quite frankly to a fair old attritional battle at Acrisure Stadium, once upon a time Heinz Field of course. First downs could be rare beasts indeed, with actual points even more so.

More irony – both are far better defending the rush than the pass, in a match where the two QBs would probably quite like to air it out but may err on the side of caution and just hand it on.

Pittsburgh appeals as by far the more likely winner to me. They’ve defeated the likes of the Bengals, Ravens and Packers, without necessarily finding that consistency I mentioned earlier. New England defend like you’d expect a Belichick side to defend but on the other side of the ball little is happening.

Steelers -5.5 @ 10/11

To our bets then. As I indicated earlier, Pittsburgh appeal as the most likely winner in my eyes. 4/11 isn’t my kind of price, so we’re left viewing the spread. Can the Steelers cover that 5.5 figure? I believe they can.

Home field advantage, New England have massive offensive efficacy issues, and there’s a great incentive for the Steelers to maintain their current position as a highly-likely play-off outfit.

New England, conversely, have the worst record in the whole Conference – but admittedly, and perhaps oddly, a fairly robust defense. That rear guard is being let down badly by the offense – and a similar tale could be about to unfold.

Let’s play the Steelers’ points total over 17, @ Evens

Modest stakes are recommended, but achieving such a number in what I hope will be a winning display should hopefully be within compass.

NFL betting tips, from Betfred Insights.