Shakhtar Donetsk v Marseille Prediction: Ukrainians can cause another upset

Shakhtar Donetsk host Marseille at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg on Thursday (17:45) in the first leg of their Europa League knockout round play-off tie. 

The teams arrived in this round by different routes, with Shakhtar finishing third behind Barcelona and Porto in Champions League Group H, while Marseille started out in this competition and finished second behind Brighton in Europa League Group B. 

It’s not a typical game with the Ukrainian team having to play in Germany and Shakhtar are also playing their first competitive match after their winter break, but while Marseille have been more active they have been going through a rough spell of form. 

Team News 

Shakhtar could be without long-term absentee Lassina Traore along with Ivan Petryak (ankle), Tymur Puzankov (knee) and Marlon Gomes (calf), but Brazilian midfielder Kevin is set to make his debut. 

Marseille defender Samuel Gigot can play in this competition despite his red card in Ligue 1 on Friday, but former Watford star Ismaila Sarr is suspended. 

Valentin Rongier, Bilal Nadir, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Jordan Veretout and Amir Murillo have all been out due to injuries but Chancel Mbemba should be available after playing for DR Congo at the Africa Cup of Nations. 

Match Odds 

Shakhtar are the 11/5 outsiders to win the first leg, with the draw priced at 5/2 and Marseille the 6/5 favourites. 

Both teams have scored in six of OM’s last eight league and cup games and it is 4/6 for that to happen in this match and 11/10 for one or both teams to keep a clean sheet. 

Shakhtar Donetsk @ 11/5 

A lack of recent competitive action and the absence of true home advantage count against Shakhtar in this tie, but they remain a high-quality team and there is value in their odds to win the game. 

Marseille have not won any of their last five matches in all competitions. They have taken three points from draws in their last four Ligue 1 outings and were knocked out of the French Cup by Rennes in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw. 

Their away record is particularly concerning as while they have not lost at home all season, Marseille have won just one of their 10 road games in the league. 

They managed a road win at AEK Athens in the group stage of this competition but drew 3-3 at Ajax and were beaten 1-0 at the Amex Stadium by Brighton, a result which forced them into this playoff round. 

Pressure is mounting on Marseille manager Gennaro Gattuso after his team’s winless run and Shakhtar have already claimed some notable successes in European action this season. 

Shakhtar won three and lost three of their Champions League group games, beating Antwerp home and away but also scoring a sensational home win over mighty Barcelona at the same venue that will be used for Thursday’s game. 

They are only fourth in the Ukrainian league currently but are just three points off the top and have two games in hand on all the teams above them. 

At these prices it is worth taking the chance that Shakhtar, who have played a number of friendlies to get back into shape, are capable of another strong European performance. 

Danylo Sikan first goalscorer @ 6/1 

Shakhtar striker Danylo Sikan scored four goals in the Champions League group stage and looks a decent price to find the net first against Marseille. 

Sikan scored twice in the 3-2 Group H win in Antwerp as Shakhtar came back from 2-0 down and he was also on target in the wild 5-3 loss in Porto which ended their involvement in Europe’s top club competition this season. 

However, it was Sikan’s winner in the 1-0 victory over Barcelona that will be remembered most as he powered home a tremendous header. 

Marseille’s only clean sheet in their last 10 games came against fifth-tier team Thionville Lusitanos in the French Cup and Sikan should have chances to add to his tally.