Part I – The Senate
Control of the Senate is also important for the Supreme Court as it gets to sign off on appointments (a Republican President and Republican Senate or vice versa allows for the selection of more ideological judges, while a Republican President and a Democrat Senate or vice versa means compromise is required.)
US Senators are elected for 6-year terms, with one third of Senators being elected every 2 years. This also means that Senators will alternate between being up for election in a presidential year and in a mid-term year.
Generally, it is harder for the Democrats to hold the Senate as there are 19 solid or leaning Democrat (Blue) states, 24 solid or leaning Republican (Red) states, and 7 Swing (Purple) states. This means that for the Democrats to win the Senate they need to either win some seats in red states or carry almost all of the purple states.
The current Senate is 51 Democrats – 49 Republicans
The Republicans had a bad year in 2022 due to picking a number of extreme candidates. There has been a concerted effort this time to select more mainstream candidates (with mixed results)
This year is particularly challenging for the Democrats as they have a whole slew of Red and Purple state defences.
Republican Defences
Florida (incumbent defending)
Republican candidate – Rick Scott – Florida Governor from 2010-2018, he won a nailbiter against veteran Democrat Bill Nelson in 2018.
Democrat candidate – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell – An Ecuadorian-American, she won Florida’s 26th Congressional District in 2018 (Trump’s midterms) but then lost it back again in 2020
Going back 2 decades, Florida along with Ohio and Pennsylvania was considered to be one of the key swing states. In recent years, it has moved towards the Republicans but is not out of reach for the Democrats. A factor that could bring this state into play are the twin hurricanes Helene and Milton, which have led to many people being displaced
538 polling average – Rep 49.0%, Dem 44.3%
Texas (incumbent defending)
Republican candidate – Ted Cruz – First elected in 2012, he stood against Trump in 2016 and was dubbed “Lyin’ Ted”. In 2018, he stood again and narrowly won 51%-48% against Democrat Beto O’Rourke
Democrat candidate – Collin Allred – Former NFL player and currently Congressmen for the 32nd District (based around Dallas.)
Texas as the 2nd most populous state in the Union has long been the Democrat’s Great White Hope. Demographic change has brought it into play but it has remained stubbornly out of reach for now (Democrats haven’t won a statewide office since 1994)
538 polling average – Rep 48.9%, Dem 45.5%
Nebraska Regular (incumbent defending)
Republican candidate – Deb Fischer – First elected in 2012 beating a Democrat she comfortably won re-election in 2018
Independent candidate – Dan Osborn – Us Navy Veteran and Union leader, he refused the endorsement of the Democrat party
As a usually safe Republican state (2016 – Trump by 25 points, 2020 – Trump by 19 points), Nebraska’s only electoral interest is normally around the Omaha-based 2nd district. This cycle Nebraska has a double election with a special election (think by-election) alongside the regular election.
The regular election sees Dan Osborn running as an independent (there is no Democrat candidate). Osborn is polling well but it is still incredibly difficult to win as a genuine independent in the hyperpartisan US political climate. To win, he will need all of Biden’s voters plus around 1 in 6 Trump voters.
538 polling average – Rep 45.5%, Ind 44.5%
Safe Republican: Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska special, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming,
Democrat Red State Defences
West Virginia (open seat)
Democrat candidate – Glenn Elliott – Mayor of Wheeling
Republican candidate – Jim Justice – Businessman and incumbent governor of West Virginia
West Virginia used to be a reliably Democrat state and voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. It has since moved sharply to the right (in part due to the Democrat’s stance on climate change, as one of the state’s biggest industries is coal mining). Joe Manchin managed to hold the seat by tacking against the Democrat party line on many issues, but with his departure this is seen as a certain gain for the Republicans.
Polling – last poll in August has Justice leading 62% – 28%
Montana (incumbent defending)
Democrat candidate – Jon Tester – Originally a farmer, he served in the Montana state senate from 1999-2007. He won the US senate seat in 2006 and has been re-elected fairly narrowly in 2012 and 2018.
Republican candidate – Tim Sheehy – Ex-Navy SEAL and aerial firefighter, Sheehy was specially recruited to run for this seat.
Jon Tester has successfully won the seat 3 times due to having a folksy charm and authenticity. The challenge he faces is that the last 2 Presidential cycles have seen a decline in split ticket voting (split ticket voting is where someone votes for a different party in down ballot races to their presidential choice. Straight ticket voting is when someone votes for the same party for every office).
Montana is a strongly Republican state at presidential level (2016 – Trump by 20 points, 2020 – Trump by 16 points), so Tester needs a large slice of Trump voters to split their tickets.
538 polling average – Rep 49.6%, Dem 44.2%
Ohio (incumbent defending)
Democrat candidate – Sherrod Brown – Former US House member and Ohio Secretary of State, he first won the US Senate seat in 2006 and won election reasonably comfortably in 2012 and 2018
Republican candidate – Bernie Moreno – Born in Colombia, he owns a chain of auto dealerships. In the primary, he was seen as the Trump candidate
Ohio is a similar story to Montana with the Republicans seeking to take out a well-established Democrat Senator. The difference is that Ohio is a less Republican state (2016 – Trump by 8 points, 2020 – Trump by 8 points). Ohio used to be a classic swing state but has moved to the right in the Trump era.
538 polling average – Dem 47.6%, Rep 46.0%
Democrat Purple State Defences
Michigan (open seat)
Democrat candidate – Elissa Slotkin – Current Representative for Michigan’s 7th District which covers the state capital Lansing. She was previously a CIA analyst
Republican candidate – Mike Rogers – He was Representative for Michigan’s 8th District from 2001 to 2015 and was previously in the State Senate
Michigan should be a good pick opportunity for the Republicans with the current senator standing down. However, currently Slotkin is running ahead of Harris
538 polling average – Dem 48.7%, Rep 44.6%
Wisconsin (incumbent defending)
Democrat candidate – Tammy Baldwin – She was in the US House from 1999-2013 and first won election to the Senate narrowly in 2012. She won election more comfortably in 2018
Republican candidate – Eric Hovde – Businessman and multimillionaire. He is rich enough to be able to self-fund his own campaign
While Wisconsin is a purple state, this senate seat has had a Democrat senator since 1952 and is the longest held Democrat seat in the country.
538 polling average – Dem 49.5%, Rep 46.5%
Pennsylvania (incumbent defending)
Democrat candidate – Bob Casey Jr – Former state treasurer, he first won the US Senate seat in 2006 and won re-election reasonably comfortably in 2012 and 2018
Republican candidate – Dave McCormick – Served as Under Secretary of the Treasury in the George W Bush administration. Previously ran for the other Senate seat in 2022, but lost in the primary.
In 2022, the Republicans put up controversial TV doctor Mehmet Oz for the other senate seat. They seem to have learned their lesson with a more conventional pick this time around. Casey has been running slightly ahead of Biden/Harris
538 polling average – Dem 47.8%, Rep 44.6%
Arizona (open seat)
Democrat candidate – Ruben Gallego Jr – Former US Marine, he currently holds Arizona’s 3rd congressional district based around Phoenix
Republican candidate – Kari Lake – A former TV presenter, she unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2022
In 2018 Kyrsten Sinema won this seat for the Democrats. One of the most conservative democrats, she fell out with the party, switching to independent and then standing down. This ought to have been a great pick-up opportunity for the Republicans but this is where their candidate selection fell down.
Kari Lake is a Trump acolyte and was talked about as a possible VP pick. She lost the 2022 Governor’s race and refused to accept the results. She is currently running a long way behind Trump
538 polling average – Dem 50.5%, Rep 43.7%
Nevada (incumbent defending)
Democrat candidate – Jacky Rosen – Former US Congressman for Nevada’s 3rd district, she defeated one term Republican Senator Dean Heller in 2018
Republican candidate – Sam Brown – Former US army, he suffered serious burns due to an IED in Afghanistan. Previously ran for the other seat in 2022 but lost in the primary.
Nevada has been considered a swing state for some time but the last time the Republicans won it at presidential level was 2004. Over two-thirds of the population live in Clark County, which contains Las Vegas so to win statewide Republicans have to keep down the margin Clark, while winning heavily in the rural counties. Brown is running a long way behind Trump – this may be due to fundraising issues.
538 polling average – Dem 49.0%, Rep 41.5%
Democrat Blue State Defence
Maryland (open seat)
Democrat candidate – Angela Alsobrooks – Lawyer and county executive of Prince George’s county (Washington D.C. suburbs)
Republican candidate – Larry Hogan – Popular moderate Republican governor from 2015-2023
This is a state where the Republicans made a good pick by persuading former governor Larry Hogan to run. The issue here is that this state is Montana in reverse being very strongly Democrat due to Baltimore and the Washington D.C. suburbs (2016 – Clinton by 26 points, 2020 – Biden by 33 points). Hogan is running comfortably ahead of Trump but it doesn’t look like being enough.
538 polling average – Dem 51.0%, Rep 40.7%
Safe Democrat – California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine*, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont*, Virginia, Washington
*Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are nominally independent but vote with the Democrats
Overview
The danger for the Democrats is that there is an asymmetry in how each side can do.
The worst case for the Republicans is gain West Virginia and lose Florida, Texas, Nebraska for 48 Republicans, 53 Democrats, plus Osborn. This would still give Republicans the chance to win the Senate back in 2026 (if Harris held the presidency)
The worst case for the Democrats is no gains and lose all of their defences, giving 58 Republicans and 42 Democrats and putting the Senate out of reach for potentially years to come.
Realistically, 49-51 would be a decent result for the Democrats and 50-50 would be excellent. The Blue wall swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be key as whoever wins them at the presidential level may also take the relevant senate seats.
Polling correct as of 29th October
Gareth of the Vale
