• We’ve made our San Diego State vs Boise State prediction for Friday night
• The #15 Broncos are laying 23.5 points at home
• Read below for our prediction, pick and odds

Friday night lights shine on the blue turf as San Diego State (3-4, 2-0 Mountain West) visits #15 Boise State (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West). Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium. This one has major implications in the Mountain West.

The Broncos are chasing the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, the Aztecs look to play spoiler and boost their bowl hopes. Catch all the action on FS1.

Boise State is favored by 23.5 points with the total sitting at 57.5. The Broncos have covered in four of seven this year. SDSU? They’re riding a perfect 4-0 ATS streak.

San Diego State vs Boise State Prediction

The Aztecs are looking to bounce back after a heartbreaker. They let one slip away against Washington State last week, falling 29-26 at home. Still, they’ve been in every game lately – their last five were all decided by a field goal or less.

Freshman QB Danny O’Neil is finding his groove. He’s topped 195 passing yards in four of six starts. The ground game is humming too, with Marquez Cooper racking up 748 yards and eight scores. Keep an eye on Ja’Shaun Poke – the receiver has snagged 18 balls in his last two games.

NO STOPPING MARQUEZ COOPER

(via @AztecFB) pic.twitter.com/Ep3vfvvJmj

— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 1, 2024

But here comes the Ashton Jeanty show. Boise State’s sophomore back is making a Heisman case with nation-leading numbers: 1,376 rushing yards, 18 TDs, and a wild 8.7 yards per carry. He hasn’t dipped below 100 yards all season.

QB Maddux Madsen keeps defenses honest, sporting a sharp 13-2 TD-INT ratio. The Broncos’ defense? They’re only giving up 20.3 points in conference play. Their lone blemish was a three-point slip at Oregon back in September.

How about our guy, @MadduxMadsen #BleedBlue | #BuiltDifferent pic.twitter.com/QVTjbnZVJj

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) October 28, 2024

San Diego State’s defense has been solid lately, holding teams to 24.8 points over their last four. But containing Jeanty and this Broncos attack is a different beast. Especially in Boise, where the Broncos are averaging 31.3-point wins on Blue Turf this year.

The Aztecs’ passing game ranks 103rd nationally – not ideal against Boise’s beatable secondary. Look for a heavy dose of Cooper to shorten the game. That should keep Jeanty off the field and lead to a lower-scoring affair.

Prediction: Boise State 31, San Diego State 17
Best Bet: Under 56.5 Total Points

San Diego State vs Boise State Betting Odds

The Broncos are hefty 24.5-point home favorites over the Aztecs. Boise State has been favored by double-digits in four games this season, going 1-3 ATS in those matchups. However, they are 4-2 ATS overall, with all of their wins coming by at least 21 points.

San Diego State is 4-3 ATS but just 1-2 as a road underdog, failing to cover at Oregon State and Central Michigan earlier in the year. However, those games were back in September before the Aztecs’ recent improvements.

The total opened at 57.5 points, but has been bet down to 56.5. Five of Boise State’s seven games this year have gone over this number. However, SDSU has cashed the under in four of its last five road contests. The Aztecs’ strong run defense could limit Jeanty’s explosiveness, while their own ground-heavy offense may struggle to trade points with the Broncos.

The moneyline prices Boise State as a massive -3000 favorite (implied 96.2% probability), with San Diego State getting +1200 odds as the underdog. An outright Aztecs upset appears unlikely, making the sizable spread a more intriguing wager.

Odds as of November 1, at DraftKings. Browse the best sports betting sites for Friday Night CFB. 

San Diego State vs Boise State Head to Head

Boise State holds a narrow 5-4 edge over San Diego State in the all-time series. The Broncos have won two straight, but the Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Here is a look at their last three matchups:

While Boise State has the recent edge straight-up, SDSU has consistently kept things competitive, covering in all three contests. The Aztecs’ physical run-first style can shorten games and neutralize the Broncos’ explosive offense to some degree.

However, with Jeanty ascending to superstar status and the Broncos eyeing a CFP berth, Boise State should be laser-focused at home. As long as they avoid turnovers and big plays allowed, the Broncos’ talent advantage should carry them to a win, even if the final margin ends up closer to two touchdowns than the three-plus the spread suggests.

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