Royal Ascot Lucky 15
With just a day to go until Royal Ascot starts I am following up my NAP of the week with my Lucky 15.
It contains 4 of my leading fancies at Royal Ascot earlier in the week as we now have the draws for the first few days at I really like my 330/1 Lucky 15!
With 22 horses heading to post it sounds a bit ludicrous to say it is between the top 2 in the betting but that is genuinely what I feel this year. I am all over ASADNA at the odds. This Mehmas colt couldn’t have done much more on debut winning by 12 lengths at Ripon last month and that visual impression was backed up by the clock too.
He is clearly an exciting individual and connections are very hopeful he is the ‘real deal’ and will win this. Aidan O’Brien has won this 5 times most recently back in 2019 with Arizona and the favourite at the time of writing River Tiber is clearly plenty talented. He is 2-2 and while he didn’t blow you away at Naas last time he still got it done well and I think he’ll run his race. I’m just hoping the selection has a few more gears at the crunch time.
Chaldean was obviously impressive in tough conditions to win the Guineas last month and he has won 5 of 6 completed starts to date. I’m not sure this track will suit him as much though and you’d have to worry about the ground too. I really like PADDINGTON for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. This colt has been a work in progress but he has won 4 in a row now (3-3 this season) and he seemed to have a relentless way about him in the closing stages in the Irish 2000 Guineas last time.
He had Hi Royal back in third that day so on collateral form is a serious danger to Chaldean. He will improve again and I’m surprised he isn’t favourite for this. I do think Mostabshir represents good each way value having shown a smart turn of foot last time and I’ve always thought a bit of him so I’ll probably have a saver.
This is always a race packed full of potential and I’m excited to see BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND out again for Karl Burke. They won this last year with Dramatised and this filly has the potential to be just as good. She won despite not looking the finished article at Nottingham and I didn’t think the jockey was overly hard on her in the closing stages and she still stretched out well.
I got the impression she’d improve plenty from that whereas main market rival Born To Rock seemed to know her job better and maybe lacks as much scope to progress. If she gets pace around her to take her into the race then 5/1 could end up looking a gift. Midnight Affair caught the eye chasing home the promising Soprano on debut at Newmarket before winning at Beverley and is another one who looks to have a bright future.
I’ve always thought a fair bit of JUMBLY and she was seen to good effect here albeit on the round track staying on strongly to win a Group 3 here on final start for Roger Charlton. I don’t think she’s been the easiest to train but on debut for Joseph O’Brien I thought she ran a nice prep for this race when second to Just Beautiful at the Curragh last month. She should be spot on for this now and it is no great surprise to see her trading as favourite for the race.
She is lightly raced and if improving again will take a lot of beating. Laurel completely blew out in the Lockinge but she was way too keen and if settling better with that under her belt she could show up much more prominently. Prosperous Voyage is tough and had to come off the pace to win at Epsom but I don’t think she is the most straightforward and this looks a better race too.
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