As the Rishi Sunak stands up to speak today, he will be in now doubt that time is running out for him and his party. 

Ipsos polling makes clear the scale of the political challenge he faces. Last month we found that 86% of the public think ‘Britain needs a fresh team of leaders’. Pessimism is palpable wherever you look. More than 6 in 10 tell us things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction and the public think Sunak’s government is performing badly in meeting the 5 key pledges he set out earlier this year.

The data is stark. When we ask about the two most important pledges to the public overall – the cost of living and NHS – we find that 63% think Sunak’s government is doing a bad job at ‘easing the cost of living and giving people financial security’ (up from 49% in January) and 71% think they are doing a  bad job at ‘reducing NHS waiting lists’ (up from 55%). Meanwhile, 2019 Conservative voters rank Sunak’s pledge around illegal immigration as the joint most important to them and 68% of them think he is doing a bad job there too.

All of this culminates in Labour being 20 points ahead with Ipsos and Sunak himself falling to a net satisfaction rating of -44. Equivalent to Jeremy Corbyn going into the 2019 General Election.

Crumbs of comfort?

Are there any crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? Maybe crumbs. The public are split on whether Labour is ready for government (38% agree they are, 43% disagree). Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating as leader stands at -22, which is more Miliband 2015 than Blair 1997. As many as half of those indicating they will vote at the next General Election tell us they may yet change their mind and we have seen in recent memory how a party can lose a large poll lead during a campaign (see Theresa May and 2017 for details). We have come to expect unexpected in British politics in recent times, might it happen again? Clearly doubts about Labour and Keir Starmer persist.

However, Conservatives would be wise not to clutch at straws. As it stands, they are miles behind in the polls with around two-thirds of Britons saying it is time for a change at the next election. Doubts about Labour may yet see the polls narrow but for the Conservatives to remain in office there needs to be a fundamental public reassessment of Sunak’s government and what it is for.

Defining ‘Sunakism’ is key

One of the striking images of this week’s Conservative Party conference has been the large number of Tory activists queuing to see former Prime Minister Liz Truss speak. It appears that the ideological centre of gravity in the Conservative Party sits with Truss rather than Sunak at present – even if the public take a dim view of her time as Prime Minister (7 in 10 think she changed Britain for the worse). It shouldn’t surprise us, she did beat him to the Tory leadership just over a year ago after all. But Sunak needs to change this.  

In recent week’s we have seen a raft of seemingly unconnected measures announced by the Prime Minister or floated by those around him. A shift in approach on net zero, support for motorists and the suggested cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2 have all been framed in the context of a long-term plan for the country. What is missing is an overarching vision for what this plan will deliver. 

David Cameron once had his long-term economic plan, Boris Johnson had ‘get Brexit done’ and ‘levelling-up’.  To stand any chance at the next election, Sunak needs to spell out what ‘Sunak-ism’ is, the country he wants to build and why he and his party deserve 5 more years in office after the next General Election to build it. Today is his opportunity to make a start – but time is running out. A mish mash of policy announcements won’t cut it and right now, all the political weather is being made by his rivals.

Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos.