• High-scoring Portugal faces defensively-stout Slovenia in the round of 16 on Monday at Euro 2024
• Slovenia only conceded twice in the group stage, including a 0-0 draw with England, but is still a massive underdog to Portugal
• See the Portugal vs Slovenia odds, predictions, and best bets for Monday’s game at the Waldstadion in Frankfurt

The smallest nation at Euro 2024 hopes to make further history on Monday as Slovenia (0-3-0, 3 PTS, +0 GD) clash with heavily-favored Portugal (2-0-1, 6 PTS, +2 GD) in a round of 16 battle at the Waldstadion in Frankfurt at 3:00 pm ET.

A +160 underdog to make it out of the group stage, Slovenia managed three straight draws against Denmark, Serbia, and England, and qualified by the skin of their teeth: Slovenia was the fourth and final third-placed team to make it, edging out Hungary on goal differential.

The Portugal vs Slovenia odds portend a swift exit for the nation of just 2.1 million. though, listing Portugal as a -278 favorite to win in regular time and a -700 favorite to qualify for the quarterfinals.

Portugal vs Slovenia Odds

Slovenia comes back as a +1050 underdog to win in regular time and +450 to advance. A 90-minute draw is priced at +390.

The over/under is sitting at 2.5 goals with -110 odds both ways.

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Portugal enters the round of 16 as the fifth-favorite to win the tournament in the latest Euro 2024 odds at +675. Slovenia is the longest shot left on the board at +28500.

Slovenia is likely to enter Monday a confident group, though. Not only did they take points off three higher-ranked team in the group stage, they haven’t tasted defeat in nine straight matches, which includes a 2-0 home win over Portugal in a friendly back on March 26.

Slovenia Last 10 Matches

The Slovenians certainly had the benefit of a fairly weak qualifying group in the build-up to Euro 2024, but their performance was nonetheless impressive. Lumped in with Denmark, Finland, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, and San Marino, they went 7-1-2, tied with Denmark on 22 points, and had a group-bets +11 goal differential (conceding just nine times in the ten games).

Manager Matjaž Kek has his team playing fiercely disciplined defense and has the benefit of arguably the best keeper in the world in the form of Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak, who made nine saves during the group stage and conceded just two goals despite Slovenia surrendering 4.16 x GA.

Both of Slovenia’s goals in qualifying came from defenders: Erik Janza scored an 77th-minute equalizer against Denmark, while Zan Karnicnik put his team ahead 1-0 in the 69th minute against Serbia. High-priced RB Leipzig forward Benjamin Sesko led the team in qualifying with five goals in nine matches.

Portugal Last 10 Matches

Portugal, meanwhile, continued its string of mercurial performances in the group stage. They looked like world-beaters over the first two games, completely dominating during a 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 victory over Turkey. Resting a handful of usual starters against 74th-ranked Georgia in the finale, they failed to find the back of the net in a 2-0 defeat, which was the biggest upset of the knockout stage. (Georgia was as long as +800 to win.)

The pre-tournament friendlies were similar. Portugal absolutely dominated Ireland 3-0, controlling 65% of possession and allowing just one shot on target. But they lost at home to Croatia (2-1), conceding 2.72 xGA and seven shots on target.

Portugal was arguably the most-impressive team in qualifying, going a perfect 10-0-0 with a UEFA-best +34 goal difference. But they also didn’t have to face a team ranked higher than 45th (Slovakia).

The team got goals from Francisco Conceicao, Bruno Silva, and Bruno Fernandes during the group stage, plus a pair of own goals from Turkey’s Samet Akaydin and Czechia’s Robin Hranac.

Portugal vs Slovenia Predictions

Portugal is going to control the vast majority of possession and create the majority of chances, but that’s a style that counter-attacking Slovenia is used to. The same scenario played out in their draws with England and Denmark, and indeed during their recent 2-0 victory over the Portuguese.

Slovenia +0.5 is priced at +230 at DraftKings, which amounts to just a 30.3% implied probability and undervalues Matjaž Kek’s team. Portugal isn’t neighbor Spain; they aren’t inevitable and routinely play subpar games.

POR vs SLO picks:

• Slovenia +0.5 (+230) at DraftKings
• Under 2.5 (-108) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 23-7-1 (+17.27 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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