- The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets in the final Sunday Night Baseball game of the 2024 season
- Holding a two-game lead on the final NL Wild Card spot, the Mets’ magic number to make the playoffs is down to six
- See the Phillies vs Mets predictions, picks, and best odds for Sep. 22 when Zack Wheeler faces Tylor Megill
One of the most-thrilling playoff races in recent memory is coming down to the wire in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies (92-63, 40-37 away) are one win away from clinching the NL East and their magic-number for securing a bye to the NLDS is down to three. Meanwhile, the New York Mets (86-69, 45-35 home) hold a two-game lead on Atlanta for the final NL Wild Card, and with the Braves facing the NL-worst Marlins today, New York will be desperate for a victory when they host the Phillies at Citi Field on Sunday Night Baseball (7:05 pm ET).
With ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, the Phillies are favorites in Sunday’s MLB odds, ranging from -155 to -148. The run total is at a playoff-like 6.5 or 7.0, depending on the sportsbook.
Phillies vs Mets Predictions
- Mets moneyline (+130) at ESPN Bet
- Over 6.5 (-122) at DraftKings
It’s not hard to see why the run total is so low for the finale of this four-game set between the Phillies and Mets. Wheeler hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in nine straight starts, and has lowered his ERA from an already-excellent 2.77 to 2.56 in that span. He’s lasted at least six innings and struck out at least six batters in each of those nine starts (66 Ks in 58 innings, total). On the other side, Tylor Megill hasn’t allowed an earned run in two starts (12.0) innings with 13 Ks along the way.
But the Mets are one of the few teams that has hit Wheeler well during his career. New York’s current lineup has a .285 average and .750 OPS in 144 total at-bats. Wheeler and the Mets have yet to meet this season, but New York tagged him for 10 runs (eight earned) on 17 hits in 12.1 innings over two starts last year, though the Phillies managed to win both (7-5, 7-6).
The teams have also averaged 13 runs per game in the first three games of this series (10-6 Mets, 12-2 Phillies, 6-3 Mets) and both bullpens have been taxed the last couple days. The four starters on Friday and Saturday combined for just 18 innings. Neither of these pens is elite at the best of times, with the Phillies sitting 14th in ERA (3.88) and the Mets 17th (4.01). So even if both starters put in a quality start, expect runs late to push this one over the extremely low total of 6.5.
I’m also taking the Mets’ moneyline at a tantalizing +130 price. As mentioned, the Mets have a solid track record against Wheeler while Megill is surging. The Mets are also 45-35 at home while Philly is just 40-37 in road games.
Look for the Mets to take three of four from the Phillies, and improve their +3000 World Series odds in the process as they close in on a playoff berth.
Zack Wheeler vs Tylor Megill
| 16-6 | Record | 4-5 |
| 2.56 | ERA | 4.08 |
| 2.86 | xERA | 3.89 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 27.9% | K% | 26.3% |
Best Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -148 at FanDuel | -1.5 (+125) at ESPN Bet |
O 6.5 (-122) at DraftKings |
| New York Mets | +130 at ESPN Bet |
+1.5 (-140) at BetMGM | U 7.0 (-120) at bet365 |
There is a decent range in the odds for Sunday Night Baseball. The best Phillies moneyline is currently -148 at FanDuel, while the best price on a Mets’ victory is +130 at ESPN Bet.
The over/under run total is sitting at 6.5 at most sportsbooks, and the best over odds on 6.5 are -122 at DraftKings. But Bet365 still has the total at 7.0 with the under at -120.
The post Phillies vs Mets Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Sunday Night Baseball (Sep. 22) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
