• The New York Mets can close out their best-of-five NLDS with the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 on Thursday
• The Mets dominated in a 7-2 victory yesterday, need just two innings from its well-rested bullpen
• Below, see the Phillies vs Mets odds, picks, and predictions for Game 4

After a consummate 7-2 victory on Tuesday, the New York Mets ( 89-73, 46-35 home) have a chance to close out their best-of-five NLDS with the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67, 41-40 away) on Wednesday evening in the Big Apple. First pitch for Game 4 is slated for 5:08 pm ET. Ranger Suarez is tapped to start for the Phillies against Jose Quintana for the Mets.

Phillies vs Mets Odds (Game 4)

Perceived to have an advantage in the starting-pitching matchup, the Phillies are slight -120 road favorites, despite going just 41-40 on the road in the regular season. The Mets come back as even-money home underdogs in Wednesday’s MLB odds.

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Odds as of Oct. 9 at ESPN Bet. Read SBD’s ESPN Bet app review before betting on the MLB playoffs. 

The game total is sitting at 7.5 with the under favored at -120. Five of New York’s six playoff games to date have hit at least eight runs, averaging 9.33 runs per game.

As of early Wednesday morning, the MLB public betting splits showed the Mets getting 61% of moneyline handle on just 41% of the tickets. The public was also hammering the over, with 96% of early money on over 7.5 runs.

PHI vs NYM Game 4 Starting Pitchers: Suarez vs Quintana

Multiple narratives are swirling around Ranger Suarez heading into Game 4. On the one hand, he has been nothing short of magnificent over Philly’s two deep playoff runs the last two seasons, posting a 1.62 ERA in 33.1 total innings. He’s also coming off his best statistical regular season as full-time starter.

On the other hand, he was absolutely brutal in his most-recent start, capping off a subpar month of September. Last time Suarez toed the rubber, he was tagged for six earned runs on seven hits and two walks over just 2.0 innings against the Nationals (Sep. 27).

His ERA had already risen from 2.90 to 3.15 in his three previous starts.

His three starts against the Mets this year were mediocre on the whole. He was solid in the first, pitching 5.0 shutout innings in May, allowing just four hits and two walks. But in the latter two, he gave up four runs in 10.2 innings while allowing 12 hits and four walks (1.50 WHIP).

The Mets lineup has a .238 average and .692 OPS against Suarez in 143 total at-bats.

The Phillies stats against Quintana are remarkably similar: .241 average and .645 OPS in 191 ABs.

The 35-year-old Colombian had one of his best starts of the year in the close-out game against the Brewers in the Wild Card round last Thursday, going 6.0 shutout innings while striking out five and allowing just four hits and one walk.

That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Quintana pitched at least six shutout innings. His strong finish to the season lowered his ERA from a concerning 4.57 in late August to 3.75 by season’s end.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game 4 Predictions

I have never been a big believer in Quintana. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all 4.44 or higher this season, and he’s averaged just 7.44 K/9 or lower in each of the last three seasons. But he’s certainly hit his stride at the right time, and he has a ton of promising experience against these Phillies hitters.

Suarez, meanwhile, hasn’t been the same pitcher in the last five weeks that we saw for most of the regular season. Maybe the layoff will rejuvenate him and he’ll be the lights-out version of himself that’s reared its head the last two postseasons. After backing Nola and the Phillies on the road in Game 3, though, I can’t bring myself to do it again. Their bats just don’t function the same on the road as they do at home, a trend that’s prevaded the last three years.

If they couldn’t get to Sean Manaea in Game 3 – a pitcher they’ve absolutely throttled in recent history – I’m not betting on them to wake up against Quintana.

At the same time, Suarez’s strikeout prop has been set too low. He’s sitting at +108 to hit four Ks, a number he’s hit in eight of his last ten starts.

PHI vs NYM Game 4 picks:

• Mets moneyline (-120)
• Suarez over 3.5 Ks (+108)

The post Phillies vs Mets Game 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Oct. 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.