• #4 Ohio State is a 4-point road favorite over #3 Penn State in Week 10 college football action on Saturday, November 2
• Penn State star QB Drew Allar’s status is unknown due to a knee injury
• Check out the Ohio State vs Penn State early prediction, pick and odds below

It’s been eight long years since #3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) defeated #4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1). This season, it looked like the stars might finally align for the Nittany Lions to snap their losing streak, but then their star quarterback got hurt. With Drew Allar’s status for Saturday’s showdown with the Buckeyes up in the air, online sportsbooks had no choice but to give peg Ohio State the favorite in the Week 10 college football odds. The problem is, they didn’t make the line high enough.

Ohio State vs Penn State Odds

The Buckeyes opened as 3-point favorites, but that number didn’t last long. Early Ohio State money immediately moved the line up a point and a half higher, before it settled at -4. Total-wise, the over/under has held firm at its 47.5-point opener, but that number will likely fall if Allar is ruled out during the week. Kickoff for this Big Ten mega-tilt is set for Noon ET at Beaver Stadium, in University Park, PA, with Fox providing the coverage. 

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Allar Leaves Early in Week 9

Nittany Lions fans held their breath last Saturday when Allar didn’t take the field for the second half versus Wisconsin. The Heisman Trophy odds longshot suffered an apparent knee injury late in the first half, and head coach James Franklin said Allar wasn’t mobile enough to continue.

Allar threw for 148 yards and a touchdown before exiting, bringing his season-long totals to 1,640 passing yards and 12 TD. He’s a huge reason for Penn State’s high position on the College Football Playoff odds board, but credit the Nittany Lions for persevering without him.

With Allar sidelined, sophomore Beau Pribula led an impressive comeback against the Badgers. He engineered back-to-back touchdown drives to erase a halftime deficit, helping Penn State outscore Wisconsin 21-3 over the final two quarters.

His performance was impressive, but it’s important to note he has zero collegiate starts on his resume. It’s also worth mentioning the Badgers defense is not on the same level as Ohio State’s. The Buckeyes are the top rated defense per SP+, allowing only 11.9 points per game.

Buckeyes Survive Let Down Spot

Ohio State meanwhile, narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of Nebraska. The Buckeyes needed a game-sealing interception in the final minute to prevent their first home loss to an unranked team in 10 years.

Ryan Day’s team was just a week removed from a heartbreaking one point defeat to #1 Oregon, and weren’t particularly sharp against inferior competition. The ground game produced only 64 yards, while Will Howard managed just 221 yards through the air.

Jeremiah Smith is continuing to put up numbers this season

Freshman phenom pic.twitter.com/RURuEFYHZG

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 27, 2024

Howard did throw for three touchdowns however, including a 60-yard strike to Jeremiah Smith. It was the freshman’s eighth touchdown reception already, tying Chris Carter for the most ever by a Buckeye in their first year.

Ohio State vs Penn State Early Prediction

The victory over the Cornhuskers kept Ohio State’s Big Ten title hopes alive, but they’re still looking for a signature win. All three schools ranked above them have played a tougher schedule, and a win over Penn-State without their starting quarterback would carry an asterix.

Penn State on the other hand, has a victory over a top-20 Illinois team, and a road win at USC. They have one of the best defenses in the nation, but can Pribula lead them to enough points if Allar sits?

For what it’s worth, Ohio State grades out higher than the Nittany Lions with or without Allar. The Buckeyes have better offensive metrics in nearly every category, and stronger defensive numbers as well. They allow fewer points and yards per play, and are one of the only defenses to rank top-nine against the run and the pass.

Ohio State vs Penn State – Last 5 Matchups

History is also on Ohio State’s side. They’ve won seven straight meetings dating back to 2017, and 11 of the last 12 matchups overall. A Franklin coached team has beaten the Buckeyes only once in 10 tries, and only one of the nine losses was by fewer than eight points.

If you like Ohio State act now. If Allar’s ruled out this line will move further in the Buckeyes favor. If he plays, he’ll likely be operating at less than 100%, which is not a recipe for success against a desperate, more talented Buckeyes squad.

• Pick: Ohio State -4 (-110)

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