Norway vs Austria Prediction: Hosts to suffer again

A goalless draw in Kazakhstan on Friday wasn’t the ideal start to Norway’s Uefa Nations League Group B3 campaign, and Stale Solbakken’s side have now won just one of their last six games. Ralf Rangnick’s Austria are their opponents at the Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo on Monday (19:45), with Das Team coming off a respectable 1-1 draw with Slovenia in Ljubljana.

Read on for my Norway vs Austria prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this clash in the Norwegian capital.

Team News

Manchester City striker Erling Haaland and Arsenal playmaker Martin Odegaard both started in Almaty on Friday but were unable to inspire their nation to victory against Kazakhstan. The duo will surely start again on Monday, but it remains to be seen whether Solbakken keeps faith with Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth or decides to switch it up by selecting Wolves forward Jorgen Strand Larsen, who played the final 20 minutes of their first UNL contest.

Fulham midfielder Sander Berge is another potential inclusion in the starting XI after being restricted to a substitute appearance a couple of days ago.

Football Odds

Austria fell behind to a Benjamin Sesko strike after 16 minutes in Ljubljana on Friday but hit back 12 minutes later through Bayern Munich midfielder Konrad Laimer. They were unable to find a winner in the second half, however, which may lead Rangnick to make one or two changes in Oslo.

RB Leipzig’s Christoph Baumgartner, recently returning from injury, was restricted to two substitute appearances in the Bundesliga before joining up with his national team. The 25-year-old started Friday’s draw against Slovenia on the bench but was introduced at the beginning of the second half and is in line to make the lineup on Monday, possibly in place of Wolfsburg’s Patrick Wimmer.

Norway vs Austria Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Norway vs Austria page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Norway’s last victory against Austria came in a friendly back in November 2002; the Lions are 13/10 to triumph on Monday, giving them an implied win probability of 43.5%, while the visitors are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to grab all three points in Oslo.

The last meeting between these sides, a UNL clash in Vienna in November 2020, ended in a 1-1 draw. You can back another stalemate at 13/5, and the same scoreline at 6/1.

Both teams to score is priced at 8/13 and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score – Draw or Austria & Yes @ 6/4

I’m really struggling to find many positives about this Norwegian side which should be performing much better than it currently is. With Haaland, Odegaard, Sorloth and RB Leipzig’s Antonio Nusa in the side, there’s no way they should be blanking against Kazakhstan, or winning just once in their last six games.

Thankfully, they return to home comforts on Monday, and their record is much better in Norway, where they have lost just four times since June 2021, and twice since June last year.

For that reason, I’m probably looking to avoid going all in on Austria, who were unable to win in Slovenia on Friday, and lost four of their last six Nations League games.

However, I do expect Rangnick’s side to avoid defeat, and we can boost the odds of the double chance result by adding in both teams to score.

Norway couldn’t breach the Kazakhstan back line in Almaty but before that contest, they had scored in their last six internationals, four of which ended with both teams on target.

Austria, meanwhile, have seen both teams score in their last four matches and seven of their last eight.

Anytime Scorer – Christoph Baumgartner @ 3/1

Baumgartner is my value pick in the anytime scorer market on Monday, with eight players ahead of him.

He scored five times in the Bundesliga for RB Leipzig last season, the fifth campaign in a row he has breached the five-goal mark in the German top flight, and it didn’t take him long to open his account at Euro 2024, striking Austria’s second in a 3-1 victory over Poland in Berlin.

Baumgartner averaged two shots per game at the summer tournament, shooting twice against France, once against Poland, and five times against Turkey. He also had a header go wide within 15 minutes of his introduction against Slovenia on Friday.

The former Hoffenheim man can strike the ball from a distance and if he does indeed start in Oslo, he’s decent value to find the back of the net.

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