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And now, a voice from the future:

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the 13-4 Atlanta Falcons …

Seems insane, right? The Falcons? Led by Arthur Smith, who seems hell-bent on making sure potential superstars Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London touch the ball as little as possible? The team that is currently 4-3, and has the 21st ranked offense and 22nd ranked defense by DVOA?

Yep. Those Atlanta Falcons.

I mean c’mon dude pic.twitter.com/1LqDHRtyEE

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 25, 2023

Do I really think the Falcons are going to end up as the No. 1 seed? Of course not. But … this is who they play the rest of the way: Titans, Vikings, Cardinals, Saints (twice), Jets, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Bears.

How many of those teams are going to beat the Falcons? 

In the NFL betting streets, you can still get Atlanta at +115 at BetRivers to win the NFC South, and the team’s win total is set at 9.5 at FanDuel at +116 on the over. Are the Falcons going 6-4 against those teams above? On paper, a hard yes.

Another team with an awfully easy schedule the rest of the way — and another team in a terrible division — is the Houston Texans. Their remaining schedule: Panthers, Bucs, Bengals, Cardinals, Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Titans (twice), Browns, and Colts.

The on-paper losses to come are against the Jaguars, and they’ll probably be underdogs against the Bengals, Browns, and maybe Jets. The rest? They’ll be favored. Is 10-7 so far-fetched here? Their win total is 8.5 at -110 at Caesars. And if you’re feeling very frisky, they’re +450 at BetMGM to win the AFC South.

This is a top 10 QB in the NFL RIGHT NOW.

You cannot name 10 guys who have been better than CJ Stroud so far pic.twitter.com/MAqjoMFO7Z

— Jacob (@Stroud4ROTY) October 27, 2023

There’s a lot of football left, and while our brains are telling us we know who’s up and who’s down, a look at the rest-of-season schedule may shine a light at which teams might go sideways from here.

Of course, it works both ways. If you’re a Bengals booster, you may want to turn the page to 2024. That schedule is brutal.

Speaking of brutal …

The +1000 or more parlay of the week

And we’re 0-for-7. Am I worried? Not yet. Plenty of runway left.

This week, we’re back at DraftKings and I’m going with over 43.5 in the Eagles-Commanders game, the Texans outright over the Panthers at -185, the Falcons -2.5 over the Titans, the Ravens -485 over the Cardinals, the Chiefs -325 over the Broncos, and over 44 in the Saints-Colts game for a good-looking +1555 number.

Rationale: The Eagles can hit the over on their own, and the Commanders can finish the job in garbage time; I’ll be taking the over in Colts games until further notice; the Falcons will be facing Will Levis; and the Texans, Chiefs, and Ravens are all objectively much better teams than the teams they’re facing.

This is science, dude.

The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose

Second loss in a row — the Bills did me in against the Patriots — which knocks my record down to 4-3. 

This week, at BetMGM, it’s the Chiefs -1 over the Broncos, the Patriots +15.5 in Miami, and the Lions -2 over the Raiders. The Chiefs and Lions are obvious, and as for the Patriots … well, it’s just a lot of points, and Belichick kept it relatively close in the first meeting this year between these teams, so … yeah. Not thrilled with it, but it is what is.

Favorite that makes me nervous

Fell to 3-4 as I said the Ravens made me nervous against the Lions. (OK, so I had a bad week last week. Life goes on.)

This week, the favorite that has me shaking is Dallas -6 over the Rams. The Cowboys offense has been struggling, the Cowboys defense is clearly not as good without Leighton Vander Esch and Trevon Diggs, and Sean McVay can out-coach Mike McCarthy with his eyes closed. 

Player props I like

OK, it was not a good week. Went 0-for-3. Down to 13-14.

This week’s dance card:

Breece Hall, over 67.5 rushing yards, -115 at BetMGM: The Giants are giving up over 137 yards on the ground per game this year. End analysis.

Alvin Kamara, over 4.5 receptions, -115 at bet365: Kamara’s target count/reception count this year, game by game, is 14/13, 3/3, 8/7, 14/12. End analysis.

Josh Downs over 3.5 receptions, -155 at bet365: In the five games Downs has played with Gardner Minshew on the field, he has hit this number every time. End analysis.

Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?

How about you just stop asking, and if I win, I’ll let you know, m’kay?

My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week

Had the Lions last week. I HAD A BAD WEEK. Down to 3-4. OK, this week, it’s the over in the Birds-Commanders game. Let’s go.

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