• The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and their league-best defense are underdogs at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4
• Coming off an epic comeback against the 49ers, the LA Rams face the Chicago Bears as slight road underdogs
• See my three favorites early NFL Week 4 ATS picks

Following tonight’s MNF doubleheader, all betting eyes will turn to the opening NFL Week 4 odds, which means money will start pouring in and lines will shift.

The last week without byes until December, Week 4 brings a boatload of intriguing divisional matchups, including the floundering Dallas Cowboys facing the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football.

But my three early lines to target for NFL Week 4 are all inter-division matchups, and I’m siding with three road teams.

Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread

It’s early days yet, but home favorites are just 12-18 against the spread this year. Straight-up, home teams are batting just under .500, going 22-23 heading into the Week 3 MNF doubleheader, where the Jaguars vs Bills odds favor Buffalo by 5.5 and the Commanders vs Bengals odds favor Cincinnati by 7.5.

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Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 8-9 (-1.52 units)

Week 4 ATS Pick #1: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (+100) vs Indianapolis Colts

This line opened at Colts -1.5 and has swung across zero: as of Monday morning, Pittsburgh was a 1.5-point favorite. While it would be nice to still be able to bet the Steelers as underdogs, I’m am more than happy to back Pitt as a slight road favorite.

Pittsburgh has only allowed 26 total points through three games (18-10 at Atlanta, 13-6 vs Denver, 20-10 vs LA Chargers) and is limiting opposing offenses to a league-best 229.7 yards per game. TJ Watt has already jumped from third in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds to the betting favorite.

Joe Alt, meet TJ Watt

pic.twitter.com/5aA3M7yklS

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 22, 2024

Scoring-wise, the Indy offense has been serviceable through three weeks, averaging 19.3 PPG. But sophomore pivot Anthony Richardson has already thrown six interceptions and is completing just 49.3% of his passes. He has an ugly passer rating of 55.9.

The Colts receiving corps ranks in the bottom third of the league, per PFF, and the Colts are unlikely to muster much on the ground. The Steelers are conceding just 71.3 rushing yards per game.

Week 4 ATS Pick #2: LA Rams +1.5 (+102) vs Chicago Bears

My second early line to target in the Week 4 odds is the Rams +1.5 (+102) on the road against rookie Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears.

After starting 0-2 and falling behind San Francisco 21-7  in Week 3, the Rams were on the verge of a lost season. But with his top-two receivers (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) sidelined, Matthew Stafford mounted an improbable comeback to stun the Niners 27-24.

The Rams also put up a solid fight in Week 1, falling 26-20 in OT to the Lions as 5.5-point road underdogs. Their only truly bad performance this season came in Week 2 when they were obliterated 41-10 at the Cardinals.

While the LA defense has taken an undeniable step back after the retirement of three-time DPOY Aaron Donald, I trust Stafford a lot more than Bears rookie Caleb Williams. He threw for an eye-popping 363 yards in Chicago’s 21-16 loss to Indianapolis yesterday, but he needed 52 passes to do it, and also tossed two picks (making four total this season) and took four more sacks (making 13 total).

CALEB WILLIAMS THROWS THE INTERCEPTION pic.twitter.com/IDYXzHtb0r

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 22, 2024

The injuries at receiver are undeniably concerning but don’t forget that the Rams were a playoff team last year (10-7) and Sean McVay remains one of the top coaches in the league. This is good value against a struggling rookie QB.

Week 4 ATS Pick #3: Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-110) vs Detroit Lions

My final pick this week is the Seahawks to cover as 4.5-point road underdogs at the Lions on Monday Night Football. Seattle is one of five remaining unbeaten teams, and they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The defense is second in the NFL in total yards allowed (248.7 YPG) and second against the pass (132.2 YPG).

QB Geno Smith has started 2024 with the same consistency that’s characterized his Seattle tenure (but eluded him elsewhere). He’s connecting on a career-best 74.8% of his passes while averaging 262.3 yards per game. DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and savvy veteran Tyler Lockett represent one of the best WR trios anywhere in the league.

GENO TO DK METCALF FOR THE 71-YARD TD

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/TZ2NFhIxTC

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 22, 2024

Detroit has been less consistent this year, especially on offense. They are averaging just 18.7 PPG in regulation this year, down from 27.1 PPG last year. Jared Goff has just three TD passes to four INTs through 12 quarters. His passer rating of 79.2 is his lowest since his rookie season with the Rams.

Still priced at +1200 in the Super Bowl odds, I do expect the talented Lions to heat up as the season goes on, but this is a big number to cover against a team as well-rounded as Seattle.

The post NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.