- Online sportsbooks have released NFL Week 13 player props for Sunday, December 3, 2023
- Should you back one or both of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris versus the Cardinals on Sunday?
- See all of this week’s top passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown props to target for NFL Week 13
NFL Week 13 rolls on with 11 games on Sunday to pick from for this week’s top Week 13 player props. We’re backing two of the top quarterbacks to throw for two scores, a pair of Steelers running backs versus the Cardinals, David Montgomery running all over the Saints, Deebo Samuel taking advantage of a tired Eagles defense and more. Read on for our breakdowns for all of our NFL props here.
Week 13 NFL Player Props
| Prop | Odds | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns | -190 | 1 unit |
| Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns | -195 | 1 unit |
| David Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards | -115 | 1 unit |
| Jaylen Warren over 58.5 rushing yards | -115 | 1 unit |
| Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards | -120 | 1 unit |
| Deebo Samuel over 49.5 receiving yards | -115 | 1 unit |
| Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown | -160 | 1 unit |
We have seven Week 13 player props we’re betting for this weekend, including passing touchdown props on Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes, rushing props on both Steelers’ running backs, Tyreek Hill finding the endzone and more.
When it comes to how to bet on NFL player props, there are endless options and you can bet on almost any position group of players. Read on for our top NFL Week 13 player props for Sunday from the best sports betting sites.
Week 13 Passing Props – Tua Tagovailoa Passing Touchdowns
This looks like the clear best passing matchup for Week 13 player props with the Dolphins’ #1 passing offense going up against the Commanders’ 30th-ranked passing defense.
Dak Prescott just threw all over the Commanders for 331 yards and four touchdowns, only the fourth time he had thrown for 300-plus yards this season.
Dallas sacked Sam Howell four times and caused one interception last week. Miami is every bit as capable of causing turnovers resulting in extra possessions and more opportunities for Tua and the Fins to march down the field and rack up the points. They’ve caused nine turnovers and totalled 14 sacks in their past four games.
For Tua specicially, he was 21/30 for 243 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs versus the Jets on Black Friday and has thrown for a touchdown in every game this season, while throwing for multiple touchdowns in 6/11 games.
Opposing quarterbacks versus the Commanders have thrown for multiple touchdowns in 9/12 games this season.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-190); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Week 13 Passing Props – Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
This may not be the Chiefs’ offense of old, consistantly scoring in the 30s, but they still rank 11th in PPG and 7th in passing YPG.
They did score in the 30s last week, beating the Raiders 31-17 and Patrick Mahome threw for two touchdown passes, the third straight game in which he’s done so. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in four of his last five games and in 8/11 games overall.
The Packers have a good pass defense ranking 9th and had held all opposing quarterbacks to under two passing touchdowns in each of their first six games. But in each of the past two games and in three of the past five, opposing QBs have thrown for two TDs. In the two games where they didn’t, they were playing against backup Brett Rypien of the Rams and the struggling Kenny Pickett of the Steelers.
Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff all had two TDs in those other three games, something Mahomes should also accomplish for our Week 13 NFL props.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-195); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Week 13 Rushing Props – David Montogomery Rushing Yards
Since returning to the Lions’ lineup three games ago, David Montgomery has picked up from where he left off prior to injury. His rushing yardage has read 71, 76 and 116 yards, while he’s found the endzone in all three games as well.
Take out the game he was injured in versus the Bucs where he didn’t score, and he’s found the endzone in all seven other games, for a total of nine touchdowns eight games, or nine in the seven full games he’s played.
Let’s leave that Bucs game out of the equation since he only carried the ball six times and left injured in the second quarter. If you do that, he’s averaged 90.57 YPG rushing in the other seven and has never finished with fewer than 67 yards.
New Orleans is just 23rd in rushing yards allowed and just gave up 228 yards on the ground to the Falcons last week. Four players rushed for 30 yards or more versus the Saints in that game, led by Bijan Robinson with 91 yards and one touchdown.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: David Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
David Montgomery fantasy managers are very pleased after this TD 🔥pic.twitter.com/1OuAncfFQO
— Fanatics Sportsbook | PB (@fanaticsbook_pb) November 23, 2023
Week 13 Rushing Props – Jaylen Warren & Najee Harris Rushing Yards
It’s a great matchup for Steelers’ running backs this week going up against Arizona’s 30th-ranked run defense that gives up 140.1 yards per game on the ground. They may be 30th in run defense, but the 1,445 total yards allowed is actually 31st. The 12 rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs is tied for the second-most after Carolina. Then we can look at receiving yards to running backs and the 372 yards allowed is respectable ranking middle of the league, but the six receiving touchdowns allowed is the most.
The only question here for the Week 13 player props is which Steelers running back to target.
Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both worth betting in prop picks most weeks.
Last week versus another poor run defense, Cincinnati (29th), Harris had 99 rushing yards and 1 TD, and Warren 49 yards rushing to go with 13 yards receiving.
If we look at their combined rushing and receiving stats from recent weeks it looks like this.
Harris: 99 yards, 36, 96, 76.
Warren: 62 yards, 145, 110, 113.
Both players this week have similar rushing totals props. Warren comes in at 58.5 and Harris just below at 55.5.
Last week two Rams running backs each ran threw threw the Cards as Kyren Williams and Royce Freeman had 143 and 77 yards respectively. Since I can’t pick which of these Steelers’ backs to ride with, let’s hope for a similar result this week and bet them both.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Jaylen Warren over 58.5 rushing yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-120); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Najee Harris currently leads the league on rushes of 15+ yards with 11
Is Harris finally blossoming into the RB he was supposed to be? pic.twitter.com/wBMkUcVVa1
— Fanatics Sportsbook | PB (@fanaticsbook_pb) December 1, 2023
Week 13 Passing Props – Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
This is not a good Eagles’ pass defense here, ranking just 29th giving up 255.7 YPG.
Philadelphia’s defense was just on the field for over 90 plays last week so certainly could be fatigued here. They gave up 332 passing yards to the Bills last week with each of Gabe Davis (105), Stefon Diggs (74) and James Cook (57) all going over 50 yards. Khalil Shakir also had 47 yards.
Deebo Samuel’s receiving yardage Week 13 prop number is 49.5. Last week he caught 7/9 passes for 79 yards. The week prior he caught 3/4 passes for 63 yards. Overall, Samuel would have gone over this number of 49.5 in 6/9 games this season. However, in two of those nine games he only saw zero and one target. Take out those two games and it would 6/7 where he’s hit 50 or more yards.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Deebo Samuel over 49.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Week 13 Touchdown Props – Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown
After taking a brief break from finding the endzone three games back versus the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill has now scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, in 6/7 and in 9/11 of this season overall.
He’s also put up back-to-back 100-plus yard receiving games with 146 yards versus the Raiders and 102 yards versus the Jets.
Against a weak Commanders’ pass defense, he should have every opportunity to keep those streaks going and find the endzone for our Week 13 touchdown prop bets.
- NFL Player Prop Picks: Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown (-160); risk 1 unit at
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