• Sportsbooks have opened NFL player props for all Week 1 games of the 2024-25 season
• Without any real look at how each team’s offense is going to look, or which players will be focal points, there are some alternate lines for player props we can pick on
• See the players below who I think have bad lines set for their Week 1 NFL player props

We have had NFL anytime touchdown odds out for a while now, as well as player over/unders for the first two games of the season for at least a handful of days. But DraftKings and bet365 have just released NFL player props for every Week 1 matchup, and they have also included milestones and alternate lines.

After thoroughly picking through all of these odds, I am: (a) extremely excited for football to be back, and (b) feeling sportsbooks haven’t adjusted (or set proper) expectations on certain players based on new situations they’ll face in Week 1. So, I am going to attempt to expose these bad lines in the only way I know how: betting them and then sharing with you!

But in order to properly make my point, I’m not betting the standard over/under line. Instead, I want to hit the books a little harder by betting alternate lines with much longer odds. Check out the six NFL player props I love for Week 1 below:

Early NFL Player Props for Week 1

The second column of the table above is each player’s standard player prop line. However, I’m not betting that line. I am taking alternate lines on each player, which can be found in column three above, with the corresponding odds. All of the alternate lines were found at DraftKings. I did shop at bet365 as well, who have also opened NFL player props for Week 1, but their milestones jump by bigger increments than DraftKings’ alternate lines, or the similar lines came with slightly worse odds.

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I bet one unit on each of the above, splitting that unit between the two alternate lines listed for Bo Nix. You’ll find my analysis for each bet below!

Christian Watson Receiving Yards vs Eagles

Christian Watson suffered through an injury-filled 2023-24 NFL campaign, but has apparently not only figured out the problem but solved it as well. So, I expect him on the field often for Green Bay in their season-opener against the Eagles, who gave up the second-most yards through the air last season. While the Eagles did attempt to address their secondary in the draft, I don’t foresee it becoming one of the league’s top units.

In nine games last season, Watson only surpassed this total three times. However, he went for 91, 94, and 71 in those three games. Essentially, when he did go over, he smashed the number. Watson also didn’t really have the luxury of playing many games with Jordan Love after things started to click for the first-year starter. Watson’s final two games of the regular season saw him targeted 16 times between the two games and he posted the 94 and 71-yard games previously mentioned.

So, while the 38.5 receiving yard over/under does make a bit of sense when compared to his average yards per game last season, I think we see a different, more consistent, Christian Watson this year. That’s why I’m not just betting the over on Watson’s receiving yards, but I’m taking him to go for 60+ receiving yards at +275 odds on DraftKings.

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards with Kirk Cousins at QB vs Steelers

While dealing with horrendous quarterback play last season, and a head coach who seemingly refused to feature him in the offense, Bijan Robinson still went over 25.5 receiving yards in 10 of the 16 games where he played more than 11 snaps. Now he has a coaching staff that is openly saying we will get him the ball as many times as we can and a quarterback who will not only force defenses to respect their aerial attack, but also loves to check the ball down.

In Dalvin Cook’s first three seasons with Kirk Cousins as his QB, the RB averaged 27.7, 37.1, and 25.8 receiving yards per game, respectively. I think Robinson is a better pass-catcher and overall more electric than Cook ever was.

When you add in the Steelers’ pass-rush coming after Cousins in Week 1, I think Bijan sees a healthy amount of targets and makes some defenders miss to really rack up some receiving yards. I like him to go for 40+ at +225 odds.

Jerome Ford Rushing Yards with Backfield to Himself vs Cowboys

Last season, the Browns stubbornly ran the ball. Cleveland ranked fourth in rushing attempts, but only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which was 26th in the league. Big factors in both of those stats were bad quarterback play. Whether it was Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, or PJ Walker, none of them were able to threaten a defense through the air, allowing defenses to focus on stopping the run.

Though it will (likely) be Watson back under center for Cleveland in Week 1, I’m optimistic the Browns will have more success running the ball, specifically Jerome Ford. The team gets RT Jack Conklin back after he only played 22 snaps last season due to a season-ending injury, and there is no Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt to share carries with against the Cowboys. I don’t foresee Pierre Strong Jr or D’Onta Foreman eating into too much of Ford’s work.

On top of that, while the Cowboys defense was pretty good last year, they weren’t great against the run. I’m not confident Mike Zimmer fixes that as he takes over for Dan Quinn. Zimmer’s defenses in Minnesota in his final two seasons there ranked 26th and 27th, respectively, against the run. It’s Jerome Ford season (first handful of games, anyways) and I like him to go for 60+ at +220 odds.

Will Levis Passing Yards in Callahan Offense vs Bears

If there’s one thing I know about Brian Callahan, it’s that he is not one of those old school “run the ball” guys. As a matter of fact, it seems Callahan hates running the ball. His offenses have never been good at it and I actually appreciate that he obviously knows that and doesn’t even try to run the ball very much. In five seasons as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator, the Bengals’ best year running the ball resulted in ranking 23rd in yards, while the final two seasons saw them rank 31st and 29th, respectively. Their best ranking in rushing attempts was 17th, while three of the other four seasons ranked 24th or worse.

So, I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to change philosophies as he takes over the Tennessee Titans, who have made massive investments at the wide receiver position. Will Levis will be throwing the ball often this season, and he’ll do so against a Bears defense that ranked 25th against the pass last season, and didn’t really make any notable changes outside of adding Kevin Byard, who’s a better run-stopping safety. Give me Levis for 250+ at +185 odds.

Bo Nix Passing Yards vs Seahawks

I wrote quite a bit on why I love Bo Nix with Sean Payton this season in my NFL futures predictions. So, I’ll keep this one short, because there’s a lot of crossover in terms of justification. (Go read more by clicking that link if you want.) But focusing in on his Week 1 opponent, the Seahawks ranked 21st against the pass last season, and while I do think Mike Macdonald will eventually fix up this defense, I don’t foresee it taking major leaps in one offseason. I like Nix to smash his passing yards over/under of 204.5, and am splitting a unit on 225+ at +160 odds and 250+ at +330 odds.

Malik Nabers Receiving Yards vs Vikings

If Malik Nabers were not drafted by the New York Gaints, and slated to catch passes from Daniel Jones this season, I believe he would be right up their with Marvin Harrison Jr in the odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nabers is an absolute stud and I think we’re a little too down on his situation.

The rookie’s competition for targets is Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, (maybe) Darius Slayton, and Daniel Bellinger (should turn into Theo Johnson soon). His quarterback is playing for his career in a sink-or-swim situation. I also don’t think the Giants will be particularly good, and will likely find themselves playing from behind often. The other good news is they’ll see a Vikings defense in Week 1 that ranked 24th against the pass last season.

Nabers is going to be targeted a ton and will start his bid to prove he was the best WR in the 2024 draft class on a great note in Week 1. I’m going Nabers for 80+ at +220 odds.

The post NFL Props for Week 1 Have Opened – Early Player Props to Target with Alternate Lines appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.