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The Indianapolis Colts are underdogs Sunday getting a few points in Jacksonville and the New England Patriots are similar underdogs in Las Vegas, and there’s reason to take both of the visiting teams and the points.

That’s part of the appraisal of the Week 6 NFL slate from our colleagues at Action Network. Their staff has drilled down on the analytics and recommends fading both a Jaguars squad coming off two weeks playing across the Atlantic Ocean and a Raiders team that has played an exceedingly soft schedule thus far.

Meanwhile, there’s justification to bet the over in a Seahawks-Bengals contest featuring quarterbacks given rein to air the ball out. The under is recommended in the Lions-Buccaneers game, however, considering the visiting quarterback has had road woes and weather could be a factor hampering the offenses.

Every weekend throughout the NFL season, Sports Handle will bring you “Best Bets” from Action Network‘s experts, including their research and arguments like those below for why each pick is a good bet.

Seahawks vs. Bengals

Pick: Over 45.5
Book: bet365
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Anthony Dabbundo: Joe Burrow finally looked like the Joe Burrow of old in the Bengals’ convincing Week 5 victory over the Cardinals. Next up for the Bengals is a home game against the Seahawks, whose bye last week fortunately came at a time when they had a big need to get healthy.

Despite offensive line injuries in the opening month, Seattle’s offense rated second in the league in early-down success rate. That has proven to be more predictive than high-variance late downs, where the Seahawks have struggled. Seattle has been the league’s worst on third downs.

The Seahawks’ elite offensive showing in Week 2 against the improved Lions defense looks better with each passing week. I’m trusting the early-down numbers to hold up and the late-down numbers to regress closer to league average.

An underrated element of the Seahawks’ offensive success is their ability to run the ball. The two-headed combination of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet has them in the top five in both success rate and EPA per rush.

Another reason I like this over: Both the Seahawks and Bengals rank in the bottom six in second-and-long rush rate. They put the ball in their quarterbacks’ hands and let them cook. That means fewer runs to set up third and short and more chances for explosive pass plays.

If you compare NFL Next Gen Stats pass charts for Burrow in Week 4 against Tennessee and Week 5 against Arizona, you can see a noticeable difference in his ability to push the ball down the field.

Burrow was 1-for-3 on passes of 10+ yards downfield against the Titans. Last week, Burrow was 8-for-12 with three touchdowns and an interception. The willingness to even attempt those balls is a sign his health is improving.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Colts vs. Jaguars

Pick: Colts +4
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Dabbundo: Jacksonville’s secondary has improved since the early portion of the season, but Gardner Minshew has shown that there isn’t much of a drop-off from Anthony Richardson in the Colts’ play-to-play consistency.

There’s less explosiveness and upside without Richardson — Zack Moss’ long touchdown run last week happened because of two defenders accounting for Richardson in the read option — but Minshew can keep the Colts right around league average offensively. Minshew ranks 17th in EPA + CPOE composite, which is actually higher than Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have more yards per play and fewer yards per play allowed than the Jags, and both offenses rank inside the top 10 in early down EPA per play.

We’ve never seen this situational spot where a team spends two weeks in London and then comes home and plays another game immediately. Similar to how Jacksonville had a massive advantage on Buffalo last Sunday because of the extra time the Jaguars spent in London, I think the extra time in London plays against the Jags in this spot.

On one hand, you could argue the market has overreacted, given that the Colts closed +5 at home in Week 1 and are now just +4 in Jacksonville. However, the market came into the year too low on the Colts and too high on Jacksonville, based on how last season ended for both clubs.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Patriots vs. Raiders

Pick: Patriots +3
Book: FanDuel
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS

Phillip Kall: We’re only five games into the year, but this matchup already feels like one that will dictate draft order more than playoff position.

The Raiders are two years into the Josh McDaniels era and the pressure already seems to be mounting. Las Vegas revamped its offensive personnel by switching quarterbacks and flipping the receiving core. The result: an offense that ranks 29th in points and yards this season.

The weekly struggles to score put them in rare air. Only five teams since 2010 have scored fewer than 20 points in five straight games to open the season. The Raiders are the only one of those five to win a game.

Buried in the Patriots’ struggles has actually been a good defense. The Patriots are fourth in yards per drive allowed and 11th in points per drive allowed. The only problem has been an inability to force turnovers. New England is last in turnovers forced, with two for the year. They have none in their last three games.

The Raiders’ schedule has been one of their gifts this year. They’ve faced only one team ranked in the top half, according to PFF’s overall team grade. That team was the Bills, and the game was an absolute demolition job by Buffalo. The Patriots have had the polar opposite in terms of scheduling benefit. All five of New England’s opponents have ranked top 12, per PFF’s overall grade.

You can call it catching the falling knife, but this seems like an excellent spot for the Patriots to rebound.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

Lions vs. Buccaneers

Pick: Under 42.5
Book: DraftKings
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Ricky Henne: The public absolutely loves the over in this game, with 77% expecting Detroit and Tampa Bay to eclipse 42.5 points. Don’t count me among them, though, as this has all the hallmarks of a slow-paced, low-scoring affair.

Detroit’s offense is drastically different on the road compared to at home ever since Dan Campbell took over. They averaged 22.1 points per game at home his first season in 2021, compared to just 16.4 on the road. It was even more drastic last year, with a league-high average of 33.1 ppg at Ford Field but only 19.4 away from home. That trend has continued to a lesser extent through five games so far, as the Lions average 31.0 points at home and 27.5 on the road.

At the same time, Jared Goff’s struggles playing outdoors over the past two seasons are quite staggering. He averaged 2.4 touchdowns per game indoors last year but less than one (0.7) outside. It’s been more of the same this year, averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns indoors but only one per game outdoors.

Goff faces a particularly daunting task Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The elements don’t usually wreak havoc in Tampa Bay, but they might play a major factor this week as the forecast calls for heavy winds.  According to our Pro System, the under hits 57% of the time in similar conditions to what Goff will likely face come kickoff.

For more analysis on this game, check out the full article here on Action Network.

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