• Hundreds of Week 3 NFL touchdown scorer props are available at all major sports betting apps
• At the time of writing this, there are five Week 3 games with over/unders less than 40, meaning we’ll have to be sharp in picking NFL anytime touchdown scorers
• See the 10 players below I am betting to score a touchdown in Week 3

I’m back to talk America’s most popular prop bet: NFL touchdown scorers. As usual, I’m not here to focus on first touchdown scorers, since I find the prop to be too unpredictable, rather offer some NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.

Unfortunately, cashing NFL touchdown props has been a little more difficult this season than what we’re used to, thanks to scoring being down. We’re only seeing an average of 2.14 touchdowns from each team per game through the first two weeks, which is down from 2.38 last year and was as high as 2.88 in 2020.

Sportsbooks are also taking notice of the lack of touchdowns, as we’re seeing Week 3 over/unders on points scored set quite low. Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season had no totals set less than 40; there were three games with totals less than 40 last week; and now there are five games in Week 3 with totals less than 40. On top of that, there are two more with totals of 41.5 or less.

I have many opinions on why we’re seeing fewer touchdowns through the first two weeks of this NFL season, but that’s not really relevant to who I’m betting to score a touchdown in Week 3. All of the above is to simply say, I will have to start factoring this into my NFL TD scorer picks if we don’t see offenses get rolling. I’m not happy with the lousy Week 2 TD picks put forth, which lost 1.32 units. I’m now -0.26 units on NFL anytime TD picks this season.

Here are the players I’m backing to score a touchdown in Week 3 to get my money back (and hopefully much more)!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Week 3

I am betting the ten players listed above to score an anytime touchdown in Week 3, risking a half-unit on each one. There are two other players I am also considering, but am waiting to find out more info. Those two players are: Britain Covey and Jayden Reed. I’m waiting on news around AJ Brown’s status, which sounds like he will not play (but want to be sure), and would only bet Covey if Brown is out. I also want to see whether Jordan Love plays Sunday, and actually favor Reed if Love does not play. Follow me on Twitter/X and I’ll tweet it out if I play either.

If you want more than just NFL TD props for Week 3, you can check out our NFL props page, which shows you the best lines for all passing, rushing, and receiving props.

Below, you’ll find some brief analysis on why I like each of the ten players above to score a touchdown this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson

To be honest, I was originally going to stay away from TD props in the TNF matchup between the Patriots and Jets, because I don’t think we see a ton of scoring. However, I couldn’t pass on Rhamondre Stevenson at +125 odds to find the endzone.

The Patriots offense has run through Stevenson through the first two weeks of the season. The RB has 46 carries as well as eight targets. He has also scored a touchdown in each of the first two games. I like Stevenson to see plenty more touches in a game against a Jets run defense that’s allowing 4.7 yards per carry (20th), and has given up three TDs on the ground.

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I actually think the low scoring game may help us with Stevenson, as it likely keeps the Pats in a competitive game, meaning they’ll maintain a neutral game script.

• Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+125 at bet365)

Chris Godwin

I’m not sure the Broncos pass defense is as good as the stats would suggest right now. Yes, they rank 4th in pass yards allowed, but they have also had the third-fewest passes attempted against them. Their Week 2 opponent was the Steelers, who are as conservative as it gets, and they played the Seahawks in Week 1, who looked awful in the first half. It was a much different story for Seattle in the second half, and I think that’s what we’re going to see this week out of the Bucs offense.

To be clear, I’m not saying Baker Mayfield is going to carve up Denver’s defense. I am simply saying he will throw for some yards, and when he does, I like Chris Godwin to be the player who benefits. It’s likely we see Patrick Surtain II on Mike Evans more often than not, leaving Godwin to be defended by Riley Moss, which I see as a positive matchup for the WR.

Godwin already has 200 receiving yards through two games and one touchdown in each of them. With Denver’s defense looking pretty good against the run, and Tampa Bay not having much success on the ground this season anyways, I like them to focus in on Godwin this week. I especially love this bet at +185 odds!

• Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+185 at DraftKings)

Justin Jefferson

Through two games, Sam Darnold has proven the haters (myself included) wrong. But there’s still plenty of time for him to revert back to his old ways. I just don’t think it happens this week.

Similar to what I said about Denver’s pass defense above, I think Houston’s strong numbers against the pass so far are being aided by their opponents. Chicago had a lot of opportunities through the air in Week 2, but Caleb Williams failed to deliver a good ball on many occasions. I might end up looking really dumb for saying this, but I don’t think Darnold will struggle the same way.

His favorite target, Justin Jefferson, is averaging a ridiculous 24 yards per reception right now and has been targeted a team-high 13 times. There’s no doubt he could have a lot more receiving yards than he does right now (192) if Minnesota didn’t take their foot off the gas for the second half against the Giants, and if he didn’t miss some snaps last week because of a quad injury.

I think this will be the first week we see the Vikings truly having to play from behind, and I think the result will be a major focus on getting Jefferson the rock.

• Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)

Chris Olave

Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara have rightfully been the talk of New Orleans for the last two weeks – admittedly, I was torn between Shaheed and Olave in this game. But we shouldn’t go forgetting about Chris Olave.

Though he turned in an extremely quiet performance in Week 1, he bounced back with 81 yards on six targets last week. Now that the NFL has watched Shaheed catch 70 and 59-yard touchdowns in each of the first two weeks, I suspect Vic Fangio is going to do what he can to take away those big plays.

The problem Fangio may encounter in trying to scheme for this is his secondary isn’t very good. Philadelphia ranks 28th against the pass, and they just gave up 233 passing yards to a Falcons offense that was made to look awful by the Steelers in Week 1. So, extra attention will be needed in stopping the big-play to Shaheed, and I think the result is going to be a ton of room for Olave to work underneath.

• Pick: Chris Olave Anytime TD (+160 at bet365)

Tony Pollard

It appears the Titans have made Tony Pollard their guy in the backfield, as he has received 33 carries versus Tyjae Spears’ 10 so far. It also appears Will Levis’ mistake-filled football has turned Brian Callahan into a run-heavy play-caller.

This bodes well for Pollard as he prepares to take on a Packers defense that is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. With Levis’ mind-boggling turnovers from the past two weeks, I like Callahan to remain run-heavy against Green Bay in Week 3, especially when it comes to the red zone.

• Pick: Tony Pollard Anytime TD (+130 at bet365)

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Brock Bowers

When the Raiders drop back to pass, it’s more likely than not that the ball is going to either Davante Adams or Brock Bowers. The two have combined for 35 of the 68 targets so far, and I like both to be dominant with that type of opportunity against the Panthers in Week 3.

Carolina may rank ninth in passing yards allowed, but that’s just because no one has needed to throw the ball against them, as they’re currently being outscored 73 to 18. If you look at net yards per attempt, the Panthers are allowing 7.2 NY/A, which ranks 27th in the NFL.

I actually think Andy Dalton taking over under center in Carolina is a positive for Brock Bowers scoring a touchdown. I think Dalton makes the Panthers offense competent, keeping this game competitive much longer than Bryce Young would have.

Another positive here is that Bowers is as short as +200 at BetMGM and no other sportsbook has him longer than +230. This is a bad line by Caesars and I’m taking advantage of it.

• Pick: Brock Bowers Anytime TD (+290 at Caesars)

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Though I do like Zach Charbonnet, I think with Kenneth Walker out of the lineup it means Seattle gets a little more pass-heavy to open their Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins. The player I think they will look to target frequently is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

I suspect Jalen Ramsey will shadow DK Metcalf, leaving JSN likely matched up with Kader Kohou in the slot, which I see as a major advantage for the Seahawks.

Smith-Njigba just enjoyed a bit of a breakout game last week, posting 117 yards on a whopping 16 targets. He is now tied with Metcalf for the team-lead in targets this season. I don’t think he’ll get another 16 this week, but I also don’t think he’ll need that many to find the endzone against a Dolphins defense giving up 6.5 net yards per attempt.

• Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (+200 at FanDuel)

David Montgomery

This one was pretty easy to me. David Montgomery is the guy Detroit turns to when they’re pissed off and want to make a statement – see the overtime against the Rams as the latest example. Coming off a loss to the Buccaneers, I think the Lions are going to be pissed off and looking to make a statement in their game against the Cardinals this weekend.

Montgomery already has one touchdown in each game this season, and I love him to score another TD against a Cardinals defense that has allowed three TDs on the ground this season.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-110 at FanDuel)

Travis Kelce

With Isiah Pacheco out for a while, I think it’s only a matter of time before newly signed Kareem Hunt is given the backfield again. But I don’t think he will get his opportunity this weekend, and we will see some split between Carson Steele and Samaje Perine. Outside of a head-down short-yardage situation, I don’t think the Chiefs have a lot of trust in either one of those backs – and after Steele fumbled last week, who knows if that short-yardage confidence has wavered a little.

Pacheco had even been very active in the passing game, seeing the second-most targets on the team. I don’t foresee Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes targeting either Steele or Perine as frequently. So, where does this offense go in Week 3 against a Falcons defense that has been pretty decent through two weeks? Travis Kelce.

Travis Kelce just 1-5-0 in Week 2 but:

-Tackled inside the one-yard line before the tackle-eligible TD
-Had a really cool 41 yard catch-and-run called back on a hold pic.twitter.com/wdaITfdJaW

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 16, 2024

I suspect the Falcons to give Rashee Rice a lot of attention after the start he has had to the season, and we see Kelce’s breakout week. I appreciate why people are down on him after only recording 39 yards on seven targets, but he had a big-play called back and also got tackled just shy of the endzone last week. I don’t think Father Time has gotten the best of Kelce just yet. I like him to be targeted early and often this week, and to score his first TD of the season.

• Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+140 at ESPN Bet)

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James Cook

We spent all offseason wondering which Bills receiver would take all the targets left behind by Stefon Diggs’ departure, only to find out the answer to this point is no one. Buffalo has attempted the second-fewest passes in the league through two weeks, and running backs have accounted for nine of the 41 targets from Allen. Buffalo is a run-first offense now and James Cook has been the biggest beneficiary.

Cook has handled 30 of the team’s 59 rushing attempts, and that number would likely be higher if Buffalo had to do anything in the second half of their game against the Dolphins last week – Cook only played 47% of the snaps in that game because the Bills were up so big.

I like Cook to continue handling the majority of the work in the backfield, and don’t believe Jacksonville’s offense can put the Bills in a situation where they need to get out of their run-first scheme. After Cook scored three TDs last week, I’m surprised I was still able to get +130 odds on him scoring a touchdown in Week 3.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (+130 at FanDuel)

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