Next Tory Leader Odds: Jendrick the favourite over Badenoch after the first round

The race to replace Rishi Sunak as the leader of the Conservative Party is well and truly underway and the first of the six candidates has fallen.

We take a look at the remaining five along with the timetable and the latest Next Tory Leader Odds here at Betfred…

*You can check out all of the latest Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds over at betfred.com

Priti Patel arguably was the most well-known name running for the job but the MP for Witham was the first to fall with only 14 of the 121 Conservative MPs backing her in the first round of voting last week.

This may feel like a bit of a surprise considering her name-recognition. She was the Home Secretary under Boris Johnson and was behind only the former PM and Michael Gove in terms of being the biggest faces on the Leave bandwagon in the 2016 EU Referendum.

Her problems though may have stemmed from breaching of the ministerial code and despite her pretty right-wing views, others have gone even harder and more ardently to that flank.

This has left us with five and one more will be culled on Tuesday before the remaining four candidates will get to address the Conservative Party Conference at the end of the month. After that, MPs will whittle down the list to the final two, who’ll go forward to a ballot of the membership in the second week of October.

One man fully expected to make to the final round is the current betting favourite Robert Jenrick. The MP for Newark resigned from his post as immigration minister, citing the belief that Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda plan didn’t go far enough. A move that went down well with the party faithful.

This is exactly the type of rhetoric that the core of the membership want to hear. He was once-upon-a-time a bit of a centrist but his views have moved and is pretty much putting immigration at the forefront of his agenda.

It is no surprise that he leads after the first round of voting but at 28 votes, that isn’t an insurmountable number. He’ll cruise through this round however and sits at 6/5.

*You can check out all of our Politics Betting Odds markets over at betfred.com

Coming in second after the opening round is Kemi Badenoch. Her popularity with the grassroots of the party seems pretty clear and should she make it to the membership, those 2/1 odds you can currently get feel like a gift.

The momentum at this point is clearly with Jenrick but all Badenoch really has to do is make it into the top two and she’ll be the heavy favourite. There are no doubts that Jenrick will be pulling out all the stops to ensure that doesn’t happen.

James Cleverly is the man who Jenrick would love to see opposite him in that final battle for the job. The MP for Braintree remains about as close to the centre of the party ideologically as you can get considering how much of a lurch to the right we’ve seen in recent years. This isn’t to say he’s a centrist, not by a long shot, but his views are nowhere near as on the right compared to the two frontrunners.

With the Tories scared of Reform UK and their growth, there seems little doubt that the membership will vote for someone on the right of the party. It might not be the best plan of action politically but this is very much a race to the far fringes. If Cleverly can finish in the top two, his chances of victory seem slim to none and I’d want no part of the 4/1 on offer.

He was only one MP behind Badenoch with 21 in the first round and that must be a considerable worry for her supporters, with the two names expected to fall in the next slate of votes more likely to vote for him than for her in subsequent ballots.

Tom Tugendhat (16/1) and Mel Stride (40/1) are more genuine centrists and therefore are considered the least likely to make it all the way. Both secured the support of 17 MPs the first time around and are in a battle to make it past Tuesday. They are both very unlikely to win and therefore should not be considered to back.

Everything seems to revolve around whether Jenrick can ensure his opponent is someone other than Badenoch. If he can, he’s a great price at 6/5 against anyone else. If the MP for North West Essex does however make it to the membership, she’s the one to beat. So following how the 14 Priti Patel backers do in Tuesday’s round is key.

This is one to watch very closely over the next few weeks.

We’ll cover this ongoing story from now through to the final round in our Politics Betting Tips section.