• The New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders odds for Sunday Night Football favor the visitors by a single point
• The Raiders have won three of their past four, including three straight home games
• See the Jets vs Raiders odds, picks, and predictions for Week 10 SNF on November 12

A must-win game for two fringe playoff contenders is on tap this Sunday night as the New York Jets (4-4, 2-1 away, 4-3-1 ATS) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, 3-1 home, 4-5 ATS) at Allegiant Stadium (8:20 pm ET).

With rookie Aidan O’Connell making his second career NFL start, Las Vegas routed the New York Giants 30-6 last weekend, but that wasn’t enough to convince oddsmakers the Raiders should be home favorites in Week 10. The Jets opened as 1.5-point road favorites and, while the line has moved incrementally towards the home team, the visitors remain slight chalk on the eve of gameday.

New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds

The Jets are currently laying one point in the latest NFL odds and are modest -115 moneyline favorites. The game total, which was already the lowest on the board in the opening Week 10 odds, has shifted down half a point and now sits at 36.5. Yet the under is still getting the majority of money (55%) in the NFL public betting splits for Sunday.

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If the season ended today, neither team would crack the NFL playoff bracket. The Jets currently hold the 11th seed in the AFC while the Raiders are back in 13th. Nine AFC teams are between 5-3 and 4-5.

All four of the Raiders’ wins this year have come against teams that are currently at least two games under .500: the New England Patriots (2-7), Green Bay Packers (3-5), Denver Broncos (3-5), and New York Giants (2-7).  The Jets, on the other hand, own wins over the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) and Buffalo Bills (5-4), along with the Broncos and Giants.

O’Connell Decent in Place of Garoppolo

Partly due to injury and partly due to performance, Jimmy Garoppolo is now listed as the number-two QB on the Las Vegas depth chart behind rookie Aidan O’Connell. Making just his second career start last week against the Giants, the Purdue product threw for 205 yards on 16-of-25 passing (64%) with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

But nearly a quarter of his passing yards came on one 50-yard bomb to Tre Tucker.

Aidan O’Connell hits Tre Tucker for 50 yards. The separation within the first 5 steps is nasty. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/lw19aLODb4

— Sanjit T. (@Sanjit__T) November 6, 2023

On paper, the road gets much tougher for O’Connell from here. The Giants defense ranked an ugly 26th in DVOA and 23rd in scoring. The Jets, on the other hand, have the eighth-best scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and sit sixth in DVOA. While New York was pummeled 27-6 last week by the LA Chargers – putting an end to a three-game win streak – that blame doesn’t lie with the D. The offense turned the ball over three times while the special teams gave up a punt-return touchdown to Darius Davis.

The Jets’ defense limited Justin Herbert and company to just 191 total yards. at 3.4 yards per play.

Zach Wilson Continues to Frustrate

The up-and-down (mostly down) play of Jets QB Zach Wilson continued in Week 9. While he finished the loss to the Chargers with 263 yards on 67.4% passing and no interceptions, he accumulated most of that yardage while the Jets were way behind and he didn’t find the end zone once, the third time in four games he’s failed to record a passing TD.

Making matters worse, he fumbled three times (losing two), which was a big part of why New York found itself in a deep early hole.

Oh wow, Zach Wilson fumbles again! Wilson’s 8 fumble in five games.pic.twitter.com/VcsKsgNX8qhttps://t.co/CkVSHx0VlS

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 7, 2023

The third-year pivot is showing modest improvement from last season – his completion percentage is up 5.4 points (54.5 to 59.5%) and his passer rating is up incrementally (72.8 to 75.4) but the progress isn’t nearly fast enough for a fanbase that was expecting future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers to be at the helm this season.

Wilson’s 6.0 yards per pass put him 31st out of 37 qualified passers in the league. It’s also a full yard lower than he averaged last season.

Garrett Wilson (549 yard) is the only New York receiver with more than 300 yards or one TD on the year.  Second-year running back Breece Hall has been one of the lone bright spots on the Jets offense, already eclipsing his rookie rushing total (493 yards) and needing just 19 more receiving yards to set a new personal best. He is 18th in the NFL in all-purpose yards (692).

The two quarterbacks in Sunday’s game have nearly identical over/unders in the Week 10 NFL player props. O’Connell’s passing yards O/U ranges from 207.5 to 200.5 while Wilson’s ranges from 205.5 to 200.5. O’Connell is -263 to stay under 1.5 TD passes; Wilson is closer to -250.

Jets vs Raiders Prediction

The only unit I trust even remotely in this game is the Jets defense. Sauce Gardener and company have limited four of their eight opponents to 16 points or fewer, including both the Bills (16 points) and Eagles (14 points). If the New York offense and special teams don’t put them in precarious positions like they did against the Chargers, they should have little trouble containing O’Connell and the Raiders. There is no question that, between Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas has the better offensive weapons, but O’Connell hasn’t proven he can take advantage of those weapons against a top-tier defense.

O’Connell’s first start came back in Week 4 against the Chargers, who limited the Raiders to just 264 total yards of offense while sacking O’Connell seven times. New York’s pass rush isn’t on par with what Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack bring to the table, but there’s enough talent in the front seven to pose problems for Las Vegas’ subpar offensive line.

As mentioned above, the Raiders have only been able to beat teams that are currently two or three games under .500 this season. The Jets are not a Super Bowl contender, but their defense has kept them competitive and it will prove to be more than Las Vegas can handle.

NYJ vs LV pick: Jets moneyline (-115)

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